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**jean2005** · 05-20-2006, 07:46 AM

Some of the presidents most influencial GOP advicers and friends have been disperse to break some of the hard liners back in the House, hoping to soften their rhetoric and get a deal on the immigration bill...

Now, according to Tom Tancredo and other hard liners, House's speaker Hastert promised them that he will not bring any bill that does not have the majority support among GOP....

The problem with this is that Hastert have been meeting with KARL ROVE and the president in close door session, and the rumour is that ROVE and the president asked him to put the senate bill in the house floor and let the bill fail and if the bill is rejected by the HOuse on a straight-up vote, then the president will accept defeat AND ONLY THEN, HE WILL PUSH FOR ENFORCEMENT-ONLY.

LET ME STATE THIS AGAIN...ROVE AND BUSH ASKED HASTERT TO PUT THE SENATE BILL ON THE HOUSE FLOOR FOR A VOTE AND PROVE HIM THAT THE HOUSE CAN DEFEAT THE BILL..AND IT WILL BE "ONLY THEN", THE PRESEIDENT WILL ACCEPT DEFEAT, THEN HE WILL PUSH FOR ENFORCEMENT-ONLY..

**jean2005** · 05-20-2006, 07:56 AM

What ive stated is from a very credible source.

Now, a lot of people assumption is that the Majority of the republicans and democratics in the house, rejects the senate bill..The source goes on to say that democratic leaders such as kennedy, reid and schumer would never allow pelosi to tell democratic house member to vote freely and those democratic senators would make sure to let pelosi know that she needs to bring in all the house democrats and lock them up in a room and make sure they all vote according to the senate bill.

Now, can you imagine the senate democrats advocate something whyle the house democrats is contradicting them??? it will never happens, specially when you have powerfully democrats like reid and kennedy working hard on the immigration bill only to wash pelosi failing to make sure democrats in the house helping tancredo group in voting against the bill..IT WILL NEVER HAPPENS...KENNEDY AND REID WILL CALL EVERY SINGLE ONE OS THOSE DEMOCRATS.

**jean2005** · 05-20-2006, 08:05 AM

Saying all that, i believe that Hastert will follow the president instruction and INDEED, get the senate bill pass the house-senate hearing and explain to tom tancredo that he and his group would have to defeat the bill on the floor because the president have to much at stake to allow tom tancredo to crush his presidential plans.

Now, we all know that Hastert is a very close friend and supporter of the president and bush was able to get hastert to ban the felony charges off the house bill, which had a lot of hard liners very upset because they thought the president got throught hastert which got him to softened his stance....

Now Hastert has been very quiet about the immigration bill whyle other GOP leaders like bohner have spoken against the senate bill....the problem with this is Bohener is not the one that makes the decision on whether the bill clears hearings and is put on house floor...this jobs is on hastert shoulder and im hearing hastert is in bush's back pocket.

i predict that the senate bill will, indeed be put on the floor for a vote and let tancredo defeat it there, which will be a very tough task for him to do...tancredo knows clearly that if the bill clears the house-senate hearings, then game is over...the president will be able to bring in enought moderate republicans whyle pelosi will get 90% of house democrats to follow the president...

**Antifascist1** · 05-20-2006, 08:16 AM

May be I should stop wasting my time on these "Immigration Issues" and instead use my ability of clear thinking and analysing in much more profitable business of stock trading

http://discuss.ilw.com/eve/forums/a/...31#12810426331

**NYC001** · 05-20-2006, 09:09 AM

SFLK

**sportsfan** · 05-20-2006, 09:45 AM

the senators who supports the bill has exhausted a lot of effort in framing this bill, they're just not about to let the house rewrite the bill that they worked so hard and so much to achieve. The house just passed their own version without any debate at all. I hope they give the senate version a chance for a vote before they mess with it. The votes are there I'm sure, it's just not a filibuster proof.

**jean2005** · 05-20-2006, 09:52 AM

VERY TRUE...IF YOU LOOK AT BOTH BILL, THE SENATE ACTUALLY LOOKS TOUGHER THEN THE HOUSE BILL..THE FELONY CHARGE THAT THE HOUSE BILL CONTAIN, WAS NOT LAWFULL AND THE HIGH COURT WOULD HAVE DEFINATLY SPEAK AGAINST IT AND NOT ALLOW IT TO BECOME LAW.

TO BASICLY, WHAT SENSENBRENNER IS SAYING IS,"WELL, YOU WORKED VERY HARD ON THE BILL AND WE LIKE ALL THE HARD WORK PUT ON THE ENFORCEMENT PART, BUT ALL THE WORK YOU DID ON GUEST WORKER, SHOULD BE LEFT OUT"? LOL...ID RATHER HAVE NO BILL THEN THE HOUSE BILL...LET THE DEMOCRATS TAKE OVER THE HOUSE IN NOVEMBER..AT LEAST, I KNOW THEY ARE MORE UNITED ON IMMIGRATION THEN REPUBLICANS.

**Antifascist1** · 05-20-2006, 09:52 AM

1.

It is not the full House Floor but House Conference Delegates who will represent House during Conference talks.
And many of the latter are strongly opposed to President Bush's Immigration Reform proposal.
It is also not a secret that Sesenbrenner himself will be one on the House side during the conference talks and some Senator just few of days ago stated something to the effect that "we pass the Bill everyone agrees to in Senate and then Sesenbrenner just chews it during the conference talks".

http://discuss.ilw.com/eve/forums/a/...1010595521/p/8

**jean2005** · 05-20-2006, 09:59 AM

I doubt that senbrenner picks the house conferees and i believe that hastert has power to put the bill on the house floor and by passing the house-senate hearings...also, all that is needed is, hastert writing the exact senate bill, attach his name to it, then bring it on the floor for a vote and diregarding the previous house bill.

Karl rove spent this week scheduling meetings with house republicans and he's not trying to convince tancredoes and hayworth and sensenbrenner, he's clearly talking to moderate republicans that are safe for re elections...so by doing that, i believe he has a plan to by pass the extremist...i beleive we will see the senate bill on the house floor.

**Antifascist1** · 05-20-2006, 10:03 AM

I don't believe in rumors

I have this reliable apparatus right above my shoulders - and it is much more precise than you think.

**jean2005** · 05-20-2006, 10:11 AM

Have you noticed that the only one doing the talkings in the house are people that does not hold the power to block the senate bill?? sensenbrenner is only one vote, althought he's the chairman, he does not hold influencial power on where conferees and house votes goes...in fact, i believe the president could easily pressure the conferees members in supporting his stance...in fact, sensenbrenner does not hold power on who will have a conferee seat....hastert is a supporter of bush...karl rove is in charge of all g.o.p re election bids..in fact, karl rove holds more power then sensenbrenner...tom tancredo should not even be mention because i believe he's not an obstacle.

i beleive that the senate bill will be put on the house floor, and let the extremists defeat the bill in their home court...president bush has stated that they should prove to him that they can defeat it there, then he will accept the enforcement only.

public polls are showing the the majority of the american public now support both, enforcement and guest worker, instead of just enforcement...also, mccain is shown by polls as the main competitor for the presidential office and he support amnesty..so much about the american public voting against anyone that speak for amnesty.

**Antifascist1** · 05-20-2006, 10:14 AM

Have you noticed that the only one doing the talkings in the house are people that does not hold the power to block the senate bill??

Someone who doesn't read the press, doesn't know anything about House, never watched those debates live on C-Span, never noticed the legislations passed and pattern of their outcome from House-Senate Conference talks, well, such person could be misled by your unfounded and unrealistic remarks.

But I am not such a person - to be easily misled.

P.S. There is no need to comment on the rest of your post.

**Talisker** · 05-20-2006, 10:17 AM

I would expect that many calls are made behind closed doors while the Senate writes its Bill. I assume in includes most of the "troublemakers".

To add to the rumour mill, supposendly Reid and Frist struck a deal about who will be the Senate members for the conference commitee, supposendly the authors of the bill.

I think Sensenbrenner is holding a double sided sword. He wants border security and he gets it. If he keeps stalling it will show rasitic tendencies and reflect bad on the Republicans.

If the Bill gets stalled again by the Republicans, it will show that the party lacks leadership and unity. This would not look good on re-elections.

**jean2005** · 05-20-2006, 10:31 AM

I think Sensenbrenner is holding a double sided sword. He wants border security and he gets it. If he keeps stalling it will show rasitic tendencies and reflect bad on the Republicans.

If the Bill gets stalled again by the Republicans, it will show that the party lacks leadership and unity. This would not look good on re-elections.

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Great point..this is what people like antifascist does not understand..they seem to forget that if the bill falters in the senate-house hearing, the blame will be put on the shoulder of the republicans and specially sensenbrenner..is sensenbrenner ready to get blame for immigration legislature being pass before the novemeber election?...is he ready to get the blame once the democrats wins back the house?? then the democrats turns around and pass a full force amnesty..sensenbrenner will be thinking back and he will notice that the bill the senate wrote before the election was schedule to legalize about 8 to 9 million but now, with the democrats in charge, everyone will ge amnestied, including deportees.

sensenbrenner needs to think long and hard before assuming that the senate will falter to their wishes...if im the senate, then i wait them out, and make it clear to sensenbrenner that we are willing to wait pass the elcetion.

i belive sensenbrenner is bluffing, i dont think he feels they have power over the senate since the majority of house republicans will be up for election..this alone tells you all the pressure is on sensenbrenner..id rather have no bill then have sensenbrenner to rewrite the senate bill and stripping guest worker off.

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