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  • Antifascist1, Posted May 20, 2006 12:15 PM

    Senate will produce a GOOD BILL, as I said number of times before.

    1. However, what will it look like after House-Senate conference?

    2. Will moderate backers of Senate Bill allow the whole Immigration Reform Bill fail during the conference talks IF House rejects plans for Guest Worker program?
    Or would they rather, in final analysis, prefer to concede their positions - so as to allow the important Immigration Bill to get through conference?
    I beleive in the latter - ironically Senators, being MORE REASONABLE , are more likely to concede to House demands than vice versa.

    What would it mean?
    Precisely what I stated almost a year ago:
    Only Enforcement Provisions of any Bill could pass in near future.

    3. Another option is that moderate backers of Senate Bill take very strong position and refuse to concede. What then? Then House will not agree to anything on conference and Bill will die.

    Again, as I said before, it's either Enforcement or Nothing this year.



    Antifascist1 , Posted April 27, 2006 10:55 AM
    It seems like the Senate is close to passing Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill, including Guest Worker program and path to Citizenship for some illegal immigrants.

    However, even if such legislation is passed by Senate, it will either be eliminated during House-Senate talks or else House won't agree to passage of any Bill.
    Considering the importance of passing Immigration Bill this year, it is likely that Senate, in last minute, will yield a compromise that will:

    1. Eliminate participation of illegals in Guest Worker program.

    House MAY (?) agree to allow some illegals to leave the country and apply from abroad, but it still remains a big question if House will accept even that.

    2. The felony charges for illegal presence will be lowered to misdemeanor charges.

    3. The least controversial part - Border and Interior Enforcement - is likely to pass both Chambers without any problem.

    4. In terms of raising Immigrant Quotas I would expect the House to oppose such measure on the grounds of "Let us first eliminate illegal immigrants and then we will talk about raising quotas" (Meaning "We hope quota will never be increased").

    Overall, what I predicted almost a year ago fairly reflects what is to be expected now.

    Good Luck,



    Posted July 10, 2005 02:58 PM

    Personally, when thinking and meditating, when imagining and envisioning the entire political process in my mind..
    well, first I study and analyze as much data from as many sources as possible.. then try to see the streams, waves, forces, directions, energy and inertia of each and etc..
    Just like in Physics..

    Many moves and outcomes in Politics (like everywhere else) are dictated/nesessiated by invisible but powerful forces and laws of physics.
    And those are very complex laws: fuzzy logic and chaos theory are as much part of it as the Newtonian laws.
    Then there is a mystery of Bell..))

    Anyway, at present time there is no such pressing nesessity for legalization/guest worker program, as you noted.
    It is still being debated ,though recently it was debated very intensively in Times, Washington Post and other major papers.
    Usually, before any major step is taken it is widely debated in media.

    But.. To be absolutely honest..
    If my judgement doesn't fail me, if all the past and pressent patterns are to be relied upon, I would suggest that before inevitable liberalization of immigration takes place, there will be an extreme intolerance and targeted enforcement of immigration law against 'undocumenteds'.
    I repeatedly said this in past.

    It's what I would call a "wave thing".

    No argument or logic at present can persuade people like Rep. Tancredo that it is not in the interest of Public of America to do as he wishes.
    Only after millions and may be billions of dollars wasted, hundreds of thousand of immigrant families separated and detroyed, single parents and parentless US Citizen children left behind, businesses lost, hardships caused..
    only THEN there will be a loud public outcry and demand that the remaining aliens be given a chance to become a LEGAL part of this Society.

    This is what I project, based on my knowledge and analysis of past.
    As history shows, people 'en mass' never act reasonably, but always obey the physical laws of momentary nesessity..


    [quote,ImmortalE] Posted August 04, 2005 02:49 PM

    2. Note:
    2006 is Congressional Election year.
    Before CE(Congr. Elections) they may talk a lot but may not want to vote "because of upcoming elections" )), then, once elections are over, the issue will suddenly become irrelevant..))
    Isn't it Great?! ))

    3. Conservative Senator Cornyn so far seems to be one of the most dedicated to this issue, and, not surprisingly, is the one who has the broadest picture of REALITY
    (as a former Judge, who prior to that must have been an Attorney..someone who sees the picture from ALL different angles, understands overall DYNAMICS AND (REALISTIC) POSSIBILITY(!) OF PASSING ONE OR ANOTHER PROPOSAL).

    4. Rep. Senator Spencer A., Head of Judiciary Committee, is also very broad-minded Senator, who seems to be really interested in pushing the agenda.

    But Sornyn or Specter alone can't push the Bill through both chambers of Congress....

    5. McCain-Kennedy Bill is too generous and THEREFORE useless: it will NOT pass (under CURRENT circumstances) , not in Senate and most certainly NOT in House..

    6. House Immigration Caucus is very aggressively minded against any Guest Worker proposal that would allow legalization of anyone who is illegally present in US today.
    House leadership is also not very enthusiastic about voting on any such proposal.

    7. President Bush seems to be the only one who could push the tip of the weight one or another way..
    But then, how likely is He to push for Guest Worker Program NOW?
    After recess Bolton nomination, after winning hard fought, key economic and other legislation,
    with important Supreme Court nominations looming, with need for Social Security reform...
    He very much now depends on unity of GOP ( and owes to it too!), and any strong pro-immigration push on His part is likely to divide GOP and frustrate some..

    8. Immigration, as much as media mentions it, is not on the TOP of National agenda.
    Mainstream America is still very recentful of being "too generous for too long" in recent past..
    and it's such a cycle, such a tide that can't be turned back overnight..
    People view ALL "Illegal Immigrants" as ones who dwell in Paradise without invitation and steal quality of life and jobs from average Americans too...

    9. "Common Sense" is not the passion of times like ours...

    10. ......

    So, as you see, it's all about forces of circumstances and in physics, as I said before...there are forces and laws operating in Politics that are far beyond any single man's will or intention..
    Surprisingly, no one seems to realize it..))

    Anyway, my personal projection, as I said it many times before:

    1. Only Enforcement Provisions of any Bill
    can pass in near future..
    Which means: there are very harsh times ahead for Illegal Immigrants..
    hundreds of thousands will be caught
    and expeditiously deported, families separated,
    hardships caused to economy ( high cost of apprehension, detention, deportation, higher risk and consequently cost of hiring "illegals"), hardships to Immigrants and Citizens alike...

    2. This Policy, in the end, will ultimately fail.
    With all the high cost and high levels of deportation, still many more "undocumenteds" will remain, further straining the budget (also lowering effectiveness of Justice Department in apprehending those who pose
    REAL threat to Society...)
    Hardships caused to US Citizen Children and Permanent Resident families separated from each other will be too great to ignore.
    Despite all the hardships, very few people
    will voluntarily leave the country..
    There will be a mess and media will report it.

    3. Finally, voice of like Senator Cornyn will be heard and listened to.
    It's even possible then that there will be very strong push to pass something much more generous than could be passed today.. soemthing like Sen. Kennedy-McCain Bill that seems so unrealistic today.

    Different forces and circumstances will play in, and most anti-immigrantionists will deeply regret that they missed a chance to pass much more limited and restrictive, Sen. Cornyn-Kyl kind of Guest Worker Proposal....

    Years will pass before it all happens...though I can't tell you exactly how long.. (cause there is always "Unpredictability Factor" that can either accelerate or decelerate these processes..)

    But it could take somewhere from 1.5-2 years (VERY accelerated case if some favorable "Unpredictability Factor" kicks in) all the way to 5-7 years (or even more, in case of major, unfavorable "UF") years before this issue is brought to rest...

    My Best Wishes and
    Good luck to ALL![/quote]


    • Up


      • Bush Signaling Shift in Stance on Immigration

        By SHERYL *** STOLBERG
        Published: July 5, 2006

        WASHINGTON, July 4 "” On the eve of nationwide hearings that could determine the fate of his immigration bill...

        Read the full article here:


        • Bush wants me to stay and get my HS diploma.

          WASHINGTON - At a Dunkin' Donuts outside the city yesterday, President George W. Bush called unworkable a tenet in an immigration reform bill that would require millions of undocumented workers to return to their native country to begin the process of becoming U.S. citizens.

          "We cannot kick people out who have been here for a while," the president said during a press availability in Alexandria, Va., at the Dunkin' Donuts/Baskin Robbins owned by immigrants from Iran.

          "And so I look forward to working with Congress on a rational plan as to how to make sure people who have been here, the 11 million or so people who have been here for a while, are treated with respect and dignity," the president said, adding "I'm absolutely opposed to amnesty."


          • President is not a lawmaker and has no power to force Congress to do what they don't want to do.

            Read my earlier posts, some copy-pasted above.

            I really admire the brilliance of my intelligence and accuracy of my analysis - look how clearly I foresaw the events that we can all witness to unfold - just as I predicted !




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