Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Senate Judiciary begin debate on Immigration Issue, Tough debate divides Senator

Collapse
X
  •  
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ImmortalE
    replied
    I knew you wouldn't be able to discern arrogance from truth.
    By calling me arrogant you just affirm what I said before.

    Best Regards,
    IE

    Leave a comment:


  • AliBA
    replied
    My, my, my...such arrogance! (Or, could it be you're off your meds...)

    Leave a comment:


  • ImmortalE
    replied
    Nope.

    What I have is a mental skill, ability to observe and notice slightest waves while also being able to envision entire/whole picture in my imagination, the ability to simultaneously project in my mind large numbers of probabilities and then carefully discriminate the least possible outcomes from the opposite..
    It takes somewhat superior to avergae mind to do that. You can't do that Aliba. Not everybody can do that.

    Best Regards,
    IE

    Leave a comment:


  • AliBA
    replied
    I do the same, and since I'm probably much older than you (and possibly have lived in the US much longer) I have more history and personal experience to draw on.

    Also, what you're predicting, as you yourself admit, is something that would occur for the first time in the US, "in public opinion and also in energizing powerful pro-immigrant movement, kind that has never existed in US before." Turning points in trends defeat even economists' ability to predict them, and economics is more of a science than predicting human behavior.

    Leave a comment:


  • ImmortalE
    replied
    Nope, I do not just THINK (HOPE) what is to come ( this is something you indulge in all the time), instead I look carefully at past patterns, I analyse overall trends , observe currents and come to conclusion that such and such outcome is most likely to follow.
    So far I was more accurate in my predictions (and confident in doing so) than almost anyone
    on this board.

    Leave a comment:


  • AliBA
    replied
    No, you're telling what YOU THINK (or hope) is coming, and I have an opposing view.

    Leave a comment:


  • ImmortalE
    replied
    Aliba, I am not interested in demagoguery.
    Nor do I think it's a good idea to have "open borders to all who might wish to come" (just as I don't support harshest anti-immigrant measures).

    But I only tell what is coming, no matter you or I like it or not.

    Leave a comment:


  • AliBA
    replied
    First, ImmortalE, the contributions of illegal aliens to Social Security (based on the suspension file, which includes literally decades of unclaimed monies) doesn't even cover one year's worth of payments by Social Security. Then, there's the little matter of their payments actually replacing those of US citizens who have been done out of jobs, and who may now be on welfare. If illegal aliens were legalized and brought into the system, or were able to collect through totalization agreements such as the one with Mexico, that would actually serve to hasten the shortfall in the system. Furthermore, low wage workers such as illegal aliens would be even if legalized, collect disproportionately more than they pay in, in comparison with higher wage workers. That's the way the system is set up. So, adding millions of low wage workers would actually threaten the system even more. Also, since low wage workers from the Third World tend to have larger families than citizens or more highly educated immigrants, we'd find our elderly competing with these children for scarce resources such as money to pay for medical care and education.

    There are better alternatives than "open borders" to any difficulties purported social security deficits or "labor shortages" might cause, specifically raising the age at which one is eligible to collect SS (which is already being gradually done), reducing payments to high income pensioners, and more flexible work situations for older workers to keep them on the job longer. "Shortages" would actually serve to raise wages for unattractive jobs, such as nurse's aide, thereby attracting Americans. (And with all the layoffs and dislocations in manufacturing, there are likely to be plenty of low-skilled Americans available.) And of course, there's always selective, legal, and regulated immigration.

    Leave a comment:


  • ImmortalE
    replied
    On Jan. 2004 President Bush announced that he wants Congress to pass Guest-Worker program.

    The idea behind cut-off date is that noone benefits from "guest-Worker" program who KNEW of Presidents proposal before entering the country and becoming illegal.
    It is PLAUSIBLE (and yes, they would have to go back and get processed through Consulates).


    But the matter of reality is that Specter Bill won't pass. Period. To be exact: temp. non-immigrant provisions of his Bill won't pass (nor will McCain-Kennedy or Cornyn-Kyl versions).


    Houston, of course House will be happy with ANY measure that is "Enforcement Only".
    Specter Bill, stripped of temp. non-immigrant worker provisions, is just a more thoughtfully written version of HR4437.

    But let me also add that House will succeed on PAPER ONLY. There simply DOESN'T EXIST enough money in budget to be allocated for full-scale enforcement against 11-20 mln. people. Anything short of "FULL-SCALE REAL enforcement" will be nothing more but a "paper tiger" to all those day-laborers who will just laugh this measure off.

    Yes, there will be relatively increased numbers of deportations, may be even jail-sentences for some visa overstays above 1 second, but this will also powerfully backfire : in public opinion and also in energizing powerful pro-immigrant movement, kind that has never existed in US before.

    Overall result of all this anti-immigrant madness will be that by year 2010-2015 so great a pressure will be built that borders will literally be opened to all immigrants who might wish to come here
    (part of the pressure will stem from increased labor-shortages and deficits in Social Security payments - as was predicted by former Chariman of Fed).



    __________________________________________


    Over-exited , idealistic animal-herd runs in one and then in totally opposing direction, in the meantime destroying and crushing everything on it's way.

    Leave a comment:


  • Radhe
    replied
    Intereting reading about all the possible scenarios on the current debate in the senate judiciary committee. Its seems like this issue has gained momentum there will be some sort of bill or reform coming out soon . Its too early to say what will happen. What i don't understand is why is the cut off date for illegal immigrants Jan 7 2004. Whats happens to the people who came after Jan 7 2004. Do they have to go back and get processed by the consulate and if yes what sense and purpose does that serve? US consulates are already overwhelmed. Why not have the law the same for all the undocumented so that this problem is dealt with. Such cut off dates are only going to result in fraud by a large number of applicants just like in the 1986 amnesty. Lets see sensible reform.

    Leave a comment:


  • sportsfan
    replied
    without guest worker program, it's already a moot point since bush will veto the bill. everybody in congress knows this and knows where the president's position is ,not to mention he's on record for such program.

    Leave a comment:


  • Houston
    replied
    I have to agree that, without the guest worker program, the House would be pleased with the rest of the Specter bill.

    Leave a comment:


  • ImmortalE
    replied
    As I mentioned earlier, those who wrote HR4437 probably didn't think that it would pass just as is, but wanted some "bargaining leverage". So what will eventually get though conference talks is what they had in their minds in the first place.

    Leave a comment:


  • Houston
    replied
    The one difference is that, even without the guest worker program, the Specter bill is fair, just and constitutional. A big improvement over H.R.4437.

    Leave a comment:


  • ImmortalE
    replied
    But the Specter bill also includes a guest worker program!
    I don't think I wrote that it doesn't include it. Did I?


    If the guest worker program is eliminated from the Specter bill it could mean a quick passage by the House and a first, enforcement-only step towards immigration reform.
    I. And that's what will happen, if anything is to pass Congress anytime soon.

    II. So called "second" step is not what is projected or planned.

    In fact, once "enforcement only" Bill is passed, House will most staunchly (like never before) oppose ANY sort of "second" step that would be more lenient to immigrants.

    But it is the FORCE of Circumstances (the unplanned consequences) of the "first step" that would eventually bring about the birth of inevitable and powerful pro-immigration movement.

    Leave a comment:

Sorry, you are not authorized to view this page

Home Page

Immigration Daily

Archives

Processing times

Immigration forms

Discussion board

Resources

Blogs

Twitter feed

Immigrant Nation

Attorney2Attorney

CLE Workshops

Immigration books

Advertise on ILW

EB-5

移民日报

About ILW.COM

Connect to us

Questions/Comments

SUBSCRIBE

Immigration Daily



Working...
X