Visa Bulletin (September 2004)

[Mo]

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com

Ok, the DOS has not published the new cut-ff dates yet... somehow, a reliable source is reporting that the new dates are out, at least in the US Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macau. This is odd, I thought reports originate from inside the US to outside the US (US consulates). Here is a copy of the report, in comparison with last month's bulletin:

August 2004 (from the DOS)

All Others INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES

1st 22OCT00 22OCT00 01JAN92 15JUL90
2A* 15APR00 15APR00 15SEP97 15APR00
2B 01JUL95 01JUL95 01DEC91 01JUL95
3rd 15OCT97 15OCT97 01MAY92 01SEP88
4th 15AUG92 01AUG91 15AUG92 22MAR82


September 2004 (from the US Consulate General in Hong-Kong).

All Other Countries India Mexico Philippines

F1 22 Oct 00 22 Oct 00 01 Jan 92 15 Jul 90
F2A 15 Apr 00 15 Apr 00 U 15 Apr 00
F2B 01 Jul 95 01 Jul 95 01 Sep 91 01 Jul 95
F3 15 Oct 97 15 Oct 97 01 May 92 22 Aug 87
F4 15 Aug 92 22 Sep 91 15 Aug 92 22 Mar 82


What bothers me the most is, if you look closely, none of the categories advanced, and the Mexico F2A dates says "U" or unavailable (I have never seen this before). It seems that only the Philipines 3rd and India 4th preferences slightly advanced, Mexico F2B retrogressed, everything else remains frozen. Maybe the end of this fiscal year has no more visas available. Another unusual thing about this bulletin is that it has not been reported in the stardard DOS format, there is just a table with cut-off dates, and no further information regarding how the process works (as it normally states with the usual bulletin).

What's your take on this guys? - One thing for sure is, we will know whether this is correct or not this week with the DOS.

[Mo]

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com

Ok, the DOS has not published the new cut-ff dates yet... somehow, a reliable source is reporting that the new dates are out, at least in the US Consulate General in Hong Kong and Macau. This is odd, I thought reports originate from inside the US to outside the US (US consulates). Here is a copy of the report, in comparison with last month's bulletin:

August 2004 (from the DOS)

All Others INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES

1st 22OCT00 22OCT00 01JAN92 15JUL90
2A* 15APR00 15APR00 15SEP97 15APR00
2B 01JUL95 01JUL95 01DEC91 01JUL95
3rd 15OCT97 15OCT97 01MAY92 01SEP88
4th 15AUG92 01AUG91 15AUG92 22MAR82


September 2004 (from the US Consulate General in Hong-Kong).

All Other Countries India Mexico Philippines

F1 22 Oct 00 22 Oct 00 01 Jan 92 15 Jul 90
F2A 15 Apr 00 15 Apr 00 U 15 Apr 00
F2B 01 Jul 95 01 Jul 95 01 Sep 91 01 Jul 95
F3 15 Oct 97 15 Oct 97 01 May 92 22 Aug 87
F4 15 Aug 92 22 Sep 91 15 Aug 92 22 Mar 82


What bothers me the most is, if you look closely, none of the categories advanced, and the Mexico F2A dates says "U" or unavailable (I have never seen this before). It seems that only the Philipines 3rd and India 4th preferences slightly advanced, Mexico F2B retrogressed, everything else remains frozen. Maybe the end of this fiscal year has no more visas available. Another unusual thing about this bulletin is that it has not been reported in the stardard DOS format, there is just a table with cut-off dates, and no further information regarding how the process works (as it normally states with the usual bulletin).

What's your take on this guys? - One thing for sure is, we will know whether this is correct or not this week with the DOS.

[Mo]

The DOS confirms the above bulletin (September 2004) to be correct - I spoke to them by phone. Even though they haven't posted the bulletin on their website, it became available on 8/16 through their offices. The new fiscal year (FY2005) starts next month, let's hope that pushes the cut-off dates forward.

[tkalush]

Hi Mo
Thanks for keeping us informed,you are really doing a good job of keeping an eye out for these cut off dates. Is it possible to get statistics of how many I-130 applications for nonIR(Immediate Relative) are on the queue, especially for each category e.g. brother or sister of US citizen etc.. In this way you could probably estimate how may more months you have to wait for your cut off date to become current? Perhaps things don't follow such a straight path eh?

[Mo]

tkalush

USCIS is now processing Form I-130, Petition for Alien Relative, as a visa number becomes available. Eligible family members must wait until there is a visa number available before they can apply for an immigrant visa or adjustment of status to a lawful permanent resident. This process will allow USCIS to concentrate resources first on cases where visas are actually available. This process should not delay the ability of one's relative to apply for an immigrant visa or adjustment of status.

So, in my opinion, and answering your question... If you, or a realtive filed an I-130 petition for you, that is currently pending with USCIS, be advised that USCIS will adjudicate your petition based upon visa availability which means that the estimated processing time listed on your receipt notice may no longer be accurate. This means you have to keep an eye on the monthly DOS visa bulletin (www.state.gov/travel).USCIS will adjudicate your form I-130 within 6 months if a visa is immediately available upon filing.

I am not aware of any statistics that show how many I-130's are in line, your best guess might be working with your priority date and the visa bulletin. If the visa bulletin show slow movements, then probably a lot fo people are ahead of you.

Good Luck

[BEBE]

If the applicant's file (packet 3) is already pending at the Consulate (CP), how long should one wait for the interview? I thought that files won't be sent to the foreign post unless one's case is current?

[BEBE]

Forgot to mention one more thing. A visa no. should be available as soon as one's file has reached the Consulate, isn't it?

[Mo]

Packet 3 is sent out to beneficiaries when their priority date is getting closer... about 90 days from the current date to the priority date. The question is, how long does it actually take for a particular relative preferce category to advance 90 days. Only the DOS know the answer to that. In the worst cases, it can take years... so the packet 3 can wait until priority date becomes current for it to be reviewed by the foreign post.

Good Luck

[BEBE]

Sorry Mo, I've placed my question on the wrong post. Here it is again and hope you can enlighten me a bit. I'm sure that the DOS/VO allots visa nos. and divides them into 12 months for the upcoming fiscal year. Which means that they already knew what case no/s would be current for the final process at a foreign post. Then shouldn't the NVC be sending the completed files of the beneficiaries who have been alloted visa numbers to the post close to their interview date? Why is it that some have to wait such a long time even the case has been sent to the consular? Really confused about CP waiting period.

[Mo]

BEBE

I will share with you with what I know.

The role of NVC will be effected by the new I-130 rule, where the I-130 will not be processed until it's close to / or when a visa becomes available for the beneficary. So, from this language, it means that I-130 and the visa bulletin will be walking together side-by-side for I-130 to be processed. Once a visa is about to become availabe, your I-130 application will be reviewed by USCIS.... and the necessary paper-work will be requested by the USCIS through CPs. They are trying to use this route to solve and improve on existing methods of I-130 processings.

Again, the focus for I-130 beneficiaries should be on the DOS visa bulletin from now on. Priority dates sometimes move forward quickly and later retrogress, or go backward. That is, a date that is current one day may not remain current the next month or several months or years later. Priority dates are based upon an estimate of demand for immigrant visa numbers. If, for some reason, there is an unexpected demand in a particular category, then the immigrant visa numbers in that category could retrogress. Thus, any delay in processing the cases once the priority dates become current can further delay a case if the priority dates retrogress.

My I-130 has been approved, but I am waiting for my priority to become current. I guess the people who will check the monthly visa bulletin will grow as more I-130's are filed, and significantly jump (or already jumped) after this new I-130 rule.

I hope I answered your question.

Good Luck

[BEBE]

Thanks Mo. Appreciate your info. Good luck to you too.

[k2003]

Sorry for another request for clairification...however do you mean that the numbers should begin moving again in Oct? I am sure hoping so...F3 has moved 1 month forward in the last 9 months!

[Mo]

The new fiscayl year (FY2005) starts October 1st. I am not sure if next month's bulletin will be part of FY2005, I would think so. If so, All the cut-off dates in relative preferences will resume back to their positions - as in the begining of FY2004 cut-off dates (if there was retrogressions). If there was no retrogressions, they will be staying at exactly where they are now... unless a new retrogressions pop-up in the new FY2005. Let's hope that won't be the case.

I am in F1, and that preferce didn't advance in the last 7 months. The USCIS says this is due to the new backlog reduction plan on people who are waiting for green-card. Once that backlog is reduced, the cut-off dates should start to move at a faster rate. Recent reports have showed that the backlog is cutting down (compared to last year), however, no one knows what level the USCIS wants the backlog to be down to (interms of applications, since they are in the millions), and how long it will take them.

This is an area that will continue to be discussed in the FY2005.

Good Luck

[Sunita]

Everyone I am in an F3 sponsership and I have filled up and return packet3 six months ago so I am wondering how i would know if consulate received our files.I am also hoping along with everyone on board that the new fiscal year is good to us.

[k2003]

Sunita,
I too have sent my P3 into NVC (in Dec 03)...and my AVM still says "if you have not heard anything within 8weeks...please press "0"". They have said that we have to sit and wait for a Visa number...but all processing is complete. What is your priority date? Ours is April 98.