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Fiscal Year - BronzeLady

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  • BronzeLady
    replied
    Mo,

    I'm sorry but I did warn you that could happen. Retrogressing is not the only problem and the State Department cannot anticipate how many visa requests they will get from within the U.S. and the various consulates. They can look at patterns and trends but you never really know until all the requests are counted.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    Anyone who files I130 these days is expected to wait 3.5+ years minimum to qualify for a visa from DOS. The waiting will be much longer according to immigration experts by 2005, 7-10 years by 2010.

    No wonder the Democrats proposed immigration reforms - which includes amnesty for illegals, and those who suffered the waiting line on BCIS.

    Don't Vote For Bush.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    Visa Bulletin from DOS for the month of June 2004 is available today.

    The DOS continue to suspend the cut-off dates for Family 1st visa availability, while a complete attention is given to the Family 2A category, which has been moving forward effectively in the past 4 months (advancing 6 months in just 4 months).

    Here is the past 4 months trend:

    March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

    April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

    May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

    June 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (08DEC99), gap = 11.5 months.

    This is really annoying me since I am F1 with 20DEC00 priority date (just needed the F1 to advance 59 days for the last 3-4 months).

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    Back in the days, up until 1998, the cut-off dates for Family 1st were always 'C' (Current). Once your I130 was approved, you could file for AOS straight-away... no need to wait for a visa to become available.

    6 years later, 6 million people are in line to get family visas, and Family 1st alone requires 4-5 years waiting time. This has already risen to a level that families are discouraged to petition for their loved ones. Recent immigration changes ensures that to be the case.

    Pointless!

    Leave a comment:


  • ilug
    replied
    Dear Mo,
    Thank you for the info

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    copy-paste

    Dismal May 2004 (04/14/04)

    "This is the most dismal set of numbers for the month of May that we have seen in the last 30 years. The F2A category is the big exception, advancing 12 weeks!"

    Also...

    "The Visa Bulletin creates false expectations. As long as a category advances less than four weeks each month, the waiting period listed on the bulletin cannot be relied upon. Unless Congress acts to reform the family-based system, the 6 million persons waiting to immigrate to the U.S. based on approved family-based petitions should consider other options for immigrating. "


    Source: http://www.shusterman.com

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    Check this, Family 1st and Family 2A cut-off dates gap has been getting smaller and smaller considerably in the last 3 months:

    March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

    April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

    May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

    It seems like the focus is on the F2A, and it could have been due to recent concerns about how slow F2A has been in previous months. We will never know what the DOS priorities will be - but we can analyze what their priorities were.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    ilug

    The DOS visa bulletin inquiry # is: 202-663-1541. Press "0" to speak to an agent. It could take anything between 2-45 mins to speak to one depending on the time of the day.

    You can also call the number anytime (day/night) to listen to the cut-off dates, but agents are only available during business hours. The agent I spoke to said "they have millions of applications", but she didnt say how many for Family 1st applications. So, I think that's no news since we are aware of the size of the immigration backlogs.

    Good Luck

    Leave a comment:


  • ilug
    replied
    Dear Mo,
    Sometimes I even think it is better not to see those dates at all.It drives us crazy.You hope for something , have the expectations and then nothing happens.But your date is close. Let's hope for the best.
    Mo, how did you manage to speak to the human being at the state department. They told you that they received alot of aplications?

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    ilug

    I actually found out yesterday that they didn't advance - and was furious to see how they didn't even go forward from 22 OCT 2000, considering my priority date on 20 DEC 2000. I can't cope with this 59 days gap anymore. It's becoming more problematical than they predicted I guess.

    The lady I spoke to told me that the peak of the applications was in the month of October for the year of 2000. Despite the fact they were moving forward smoothly the last 16 months or so, this month is a good example of how random and unpredictable the process can be.

    The only good news is, there were no rollbacks. So, my confidence level on getting a visa available to me soon has shrinked, and don't know what to think of the outlook for the coming months.

    I hope this was just an awkward moment they are trying to move on from. This wasn't the case for last April, or the processings for the month of October applications for the past couple of years.

    Leave a comment:


  • ilug
    replied
    It looks like they did not advance for the first preference category. This is suprising since for the last 2 years they were advancing each month at least a little bit.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    ilug

    Well, my dad filed a petition for me through Nebraska Service Center Dec 2000. Vermont might be a little different schedule. The petition was approved early 2002, so it took about 1.5 years. Now, I am doing "wait-and-see" with the DOS visa bulletin, which is to be updated this week (April 12-16), maybe tomorrow - and they are just 59 days short from my priority date to become current. DOS predicted things to move smoothly for this fiscal year - so my hopes are little high for the coming couple of months.

    I hope you hear something soon about your son's case.

    Fingers-crossed.

    Leave a comment:


  • ilug
    replied
    That's very good that your I-130 has been already approved. I filed it for my son(1st preference category) at Vermont center on June 2000- still nothing. I think Vermont is much slower. So you are very lucky.
    Thanks for all the info that you posted. This is encouraging

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    Another update on this issue:

    DOS ADVISES ON Immigration Visa Numbers for FY2004 (October 2003).

    Foreign nationals who are sponsored to immigrate to the United States must wait until their "priority date" becomes current and a visa number is available for them in order to apply for an immigrant visa. Each month the Department of State (DOS) publishes a visa bulletin at www.travel.state.gov/visabulletin.html indicating the current priority dates in each category.

    DOS has confirmed that in FY2004 it expects priority dates in the employment based categories to remain current, with the possible exception of the "other workers" (unskilled laborer)category. If the "other worker" category retrogresses, DOS anticipates that this would likely not occur until the summer months toward the end of FY 2004.

    With regards to the familybased categories, DOS expects that progression will be fairly consistent with last year's rate of forward movement. From October 2002 to October 2003, the priority dates for all family based categories except the third preference category (married sons and daughters of U.S. citizens) advanced approximately 14-15 months. The priority dates for the third preference category advanced approximately 9 months.

    So - No expected rollbacks people!

    Leave a comment:


  • Mo
    replied
    Here is a more recent news, which made :

    10/31/2003 Immigrant Visa Number Update : FY2004
    The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has issued its predictions for immigrant visa availability for fiscal year (FY) 2004 in the employment- and family-based categories. The news continues to be good for the employment-based categories, as these numbers are not expected to "retrogress," or go backward. Currently, there are sufficient visa numbers available in all employment-based (EB) categories. The DOS has predicted that family-based (FB) cases will continue to move forward at approximately the same pace as FY2003.

    Nice... so much for putting BronzeLady on the SPOT!

    Leave a comment:

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