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Fiscal Year - BronzeLady

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  • #16
    Check this, Family 1st and Family 2A cut-off dates gap has been getting smaller and smaller considerably in the last 3 months:

    March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

    April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

    May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

    It seems like the focus is on the F2A, and it could have been due to recent concerns about how slow F2A has been in previous months. We will never know what the DOS priorities will be - but we can analyze what their priorities were.

    Comment


    • #17
      copy-paste

      Dismal May 2004 (04/14/04)

      "This is the most dismal set of numbers for the month of May that we have seen in the last 30 years. The F2A category is the big exception, advancing 12 weeks!"

      Also...

      "The Visa Bulletin creates false expectations. As long as a category advances less than four weeks each month, the waiting period listed on the bulletin cannot be relied upon. Unless Congress acts to reform the family-based system, the 6 million persons waiting to immigrate to the U.S. based on approved family-based petitions should consider other options for immigrating. "


      Source: http://www.shusterman.com

      Comment


      • #18
        Dear Mo,
        Thank you for the info

        Comment


        • #19
          Back in the days, up until 1998, the cut-off dates for Family 1st were always 'C' (Current). Once your I130 was approved, you could file for AOS straight-away... no need to wait for a visa to become available.

          6 years later, 6 million people are in line to get family visas, and Family 1st alone requires 4-5 years waiting time. This has already risen to a level that families are discouraged to petition for their loved ones. Recent immigration changes ensures that to be the case.

          Pointless!

          Comment


          • #20
            Visa Bulletin from DOS for the month of June 2004 is available today.

            The DOS continue to suspend the cut-off dates for Family 1st visa availability, while a complete attention is given to the Family 2A category, which has been moving forward effectively in the past 4 months (advancing 6 months in just 4 months).

            Here is the past 4 months trend:

            March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

            April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

            May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

            June 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (08DEC99), gap = 11.5 months.

            This is really annoying me since I am F1 with 20DEC00 priority date (just needed the F1 to advance 59 days for the last 3-4 months).

            Comment


            • #21
              Anyone who files I130 these days is expected to wait 3.5+ years minimum to qualify for a visa from DOS. The waiting will be much longer according to immigration experts by 2005, 7-10 years by 2010.

              No wonder the Democrats proposed immigration reforms - which includes amnesty for illegals, and those who suffered the waiting line on BCIS.

              Don't Vote For Bush.

              Comment


              • #22
                Mo,

                I'm sorry but I did warn you that could happen. Retrogressing is not the only problem and the State Department cannot anticipate how many visa requests they will get from within the U.S. and the various consulates. They can look at patterns and trends but you never really know until all the requests are counted.

                Comment


                • #23
                  BronzeLady

                  I completely agree. The DOS visa availability was booming for the past 16 months, until 3 months ago. They are probably taking it easy for some reason, and may want to use those dates as an accomplishment on their side. They probably put things on hold until the issue is raised again.

                  A lot of people like me have no assurance - its a factor we use to criticize the DOS slow processings and capability with VISAs for us. I think its little early for maybe to worry too much... I am placing my bets that it will happen soon for me.

                  I have to admit, Immigration has a purpose - whatever it is, you will know when the journey ends. Until then... the strike is ON!

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Once again, the DOS have failed to advance Family 1st cut-off dates for the month of July, 2004.

                    As mentioned in the June Visa Bulletin, cut-off dates have advanced very quickly during past two years, and it appears that CIS had begun to address their backlog of adjustment of status cases. As a result there has been a significant increase in demand for numbers in many categories. As the end of the fiscal year approaches, it may be necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates in August or September to keep visa issuances within the annual numerical limits set by law. It is particularly possible that there could be retrogressions in some Mexico and Philippines cut-off dates.

                    The Family 2A category have been advanacing remarkably, moving forward 10 months in just 5 months. Take a look at the recent trend:

                    March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

                    April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

                    May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

                    June 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (08DEC99), gap = 11.5 months.

                    July 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (01MAR00), gap = 7.75 months.

                    As you can see, the gap between F1 and F2 dates is so small, perhaps the time has come for both categories to be treated equal.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Yep, the latest bulletin continues to promote the F2 category, just like it did in the last 6 months. The F1 (where I am placed) is still frozen, take a look on this update on the recent trend:

                      March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

                      April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

                      May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

                      June 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (08DEC99), gap = 11.5 months.

                      July 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (01MAR00), gap = 7.75 months.

                      August 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15APR00), gap = 6.25 months.

                      Literally heading to a neck-and-neck situation.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Well, since the DOS posted (or tried to post) the AUGUST 2004 visa dates, and we only have one month left until the new fiscal year (starting October 2004), which is out in the middle of September 2004, any idea if most categories will move forward - due to a fresh batch of visa numbers becoming available?

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Here is one way to look at the situation with why the Visa bulletin has been going so sloooooooowly in some categories in the past few months.

                          Source: BCIS.com

                          RETROGRESSION OF CUT-OFF DATES FOR AUGUST

                          As mentioned in Visa Bulletin number 71, there has been a significant increase in demand for numbers in many categories. As the end of the fiscal year approaches, it has been necessary to retrogress the Philippines F3 and Mexico F1, F2B, and F3 cut-off dates for August to keep issuances within the annual numerical limits. Further retrogressions in these cut-off dates for September cannot be ruled out.

                          With the start of the new fiscal year in October, an attempt will be made to return the cut-off dates to the latest dates established during FY-2004.



                          VISA AVAILABILITY FOR THE COMING MONTHS

                          During the past several years, the Citizenship and Immigration Service (CIS) demand for numbers has been low. To compensate for the lack of demand from CIS, the Visa Office advanced the immigrant visa cut-off dates very rapidly to provide sufficient qualified applicants at our overseas posts and permit the maximum use of immigrant visa numbers. Such advances also meant that many thousands of additional applicants became eligible to file for adjustment of status at CIS offices. During recent months, CIS demand for numbers has increased significantly as they have begun to address their backlog situation. This increase in CIS demand for numbers is expected to continue, and immigrant visa cut-off date movement is likely to slow or stop in the Family preference categories.


                          Looks like we are going to miss the good old-days.... when cut-off dates were frozen, or retrogressed for many years.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Updating for September 2004.

                            The current trend between Family 1st and 2A so far:

                            March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

                            April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

                            May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

                            June 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (08DEC99), gap = 11.5 months.

                            July 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (01MAR00), gap = 7.75 months.

                            August 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15APR00), gap = 6.25 months.

                            September 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15APR00), gap = 6.25 months. - *** No Change ***


                            September was a "red-light" for all categories, lets hope next week's DOS visa bulletin (October 2004) changes this growing negative trend, especially for family 1st category.

                            I had enough with this waiting game...

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Hi Mo
                              Any scoop about this month's visa bulletin? today is 15th and that is usually the day the new priority dates come out, perhaps there is no change in the dates so there is no need to rush to show us the same old dates eh?

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Just got off the phone with DOS VISA agent through their # posted on their website. Unfortunately, no change has occured in my category (Family 1st), and I could only ask the F1 and F2A since the rest of the cut-off dates will be updated on their website later this week. The agent explained the FY2005 has started with the October 2004 bulletin, but the DOS is probably still working on whatever numbers that are still left over from FY2004. She did (in her opinion) thinks fresh numbers will likely to push dates forward.

                                I was really mad when she told me the cut-off dates for F1, but the information and opinion the agent told me helped me worry less on what the out-look could be in the coming months.

                                As usual, here is an update in the trend I have been tracking on the past 7 months.

                                March 2004: F1 (01OCT00), F2A (15MAY99), gap = 17.5 months.

                                April 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15JUL99), gap = 15.25 months.

                                May 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15OCT99), gap = 12.25 months.

                                June 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (08DEC99), gap = 11.5 months.

                                July 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (01MAR00), gap = 7.75 months.

                                August 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15APR00), gap = 6.25 months.

                                September 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (15APR00), gap = 6.25 months. - *** No Change ***

                                October 2004: F1 (22OCT00), F2A (01MAY00), gap = 5.5 months.

                                Hope for the best.

                                Comment

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