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**ImmortalE** · 11-24-2005, 05:45 AM

SOURCE:
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2005,1128-goyle.pdf

Deporting the Undocumented:
A Cost Assessment

Rajeev Goyle
David A. Jaeger, Ph.D.

Center for American Progress
July 2005

I. Introduction
The political debate over immigration reform remains stymied over the question
of illegal immigration. With an undocumented population currently estimated at more
than 10 million people and growing by approximately 500,000 annually,2 resolving the
status of the undocumented has become the principal obstacle to achieving consensus on
reform.
Most legislative proposals address the situation by providing some form of legal
recognition for the undocumented.3 Yet a number of people, including members of
Congress, favor a more draconian solution to the problem"”a severe crackdown on illegal
immigration not only against those attempting to cross the border, but also the
deportation of the entire undocumented population currently living in the United States.
Proponents believe the federal government possesses the ability and authority to execute
such a policy, but lacks only the political will.4
Many policymakers on both sides of the aisle dismiss a widespread deportation
policy as impractical and unrealistic. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), chairman of the
Judiciary Committee's Immigration Subcommittee, recently summarized this view
saying, "[T]he dirty secret is that we couldn't deport 10 million illegal immigrants if we
wanted to."5 Surprisingly, however, no public analysis to date has actually provided
quantitative data testing Sen. Cornyn's assertion.
Using publicly available data, this report provides the first cost assessment of a
policy designed to deport all undocumented persons. We estimate the costs of a mass
deportation effort would likely be at least $206 billion over five years, and could be as
high as $230 billion or more. In order not to overstate our estimates, we consistently
make conservative assumptions for key variables; as a result, these estimates in all
likelihood are less than the actual costs if such a policy were to be implemented.
While the net benefits of adopting such a policy are largely speculative, we do
know that spending $41 billion annually over five years ($206 billion in total) would:
ô€‚ƒ Exceed the entire budget of the Department of Homeland Security for FY
2006 ($34.2 billion);6
ô€‚ƒ Approach the total amount of money requested by the 33 federal agencies
responsible for homeland security activities for FY 2006 ($49.9 billion);7
ô€‚ƒ More than double annual spending on border and transportation security
($19.3 billion);8
ô€‚ƒ Comprise half the annual cost of the Iraq War ($74 billion);9 and
ô€‚ƒ More than double the annual cost of military operations in Afghanistan ($16.8
billion).10
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 2
TABLE 1:
Total Costs of Five-Year Mass Deportation Effort Under Different Assumptions
(in millions $)
Number of involuntary
removals
8.0 million
(assumes 20% leave voluntarily)
9.0 million
(assumes 10% leave voluntarily)
Total Cost $206,241 $230,187
All figures in nominal dollars.
We release this report for two reasons. First, estimating the total cost for
deporting the undocumented is a useful tool in evaluating our national priorities. In a
world of finite resources, understanding the sheer amount of money needed to embark on
a deportation strategy helps illustrate the choices that must be made in deciding where
public dollars can effectively be spent.
Second, mere assertions by policymakers that deportation will be too expensive
have been insufficient to quiet calls for such a policy. Real, practical solutions are
needed to combat the problem of illegal immigration and to repair what is widely
believed to be a broken immigration system"”not uninformed appeals to policies that
would drain the Treasury with little security benefit.
Last year, then-Undersecretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
Asa Hutchinson, who was directly responsible for overseeing immigration for the
Department, warned that the public "might be afraid" to learn the true costs of a
deportation policy.11 He could well be right.
II. How We Got Here
The undocumented population in the United States has grown substantially over
the last 10 years. After the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 legalized the
status of 2.7 million undocumented workers, the undocumented population remained
fairly stable until the early to mid-1990s, when it began to grow to current levels. The
number of undocumented entering the country annually is now so large that it exceeds the
number of legal migrants; two-thirds of the undocumented arrived in the country less
than 10 years ago.12
While there are many reasons for this increase (e.g., working and living
conditions in the immigrants' home countries, the availability of low-wage and service
sector jobs in the United States, the limited avenues for legal immigration to the United
States, ineffective border control measures, etc.13), there is little debate that without a
significant change in our nation's immigration policy, the undocumented population will
grow for the foreseeable future.
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 3
The undocumented fall into two main categories"”those who overstay their visas
(persons admitted temporarily to the United States who then remain in the country) and
those who cross our borders without an inspection of any kind. Although it is difficult to
estimate with precision, visa overstays are thought to comprise 25-40% of the
undocumented population (approximately 2.5 to 4 million people), while those who
illegally crossed the border number anywhere from 5 to 7 million.14
This population is not static. In addition to those who have chosen to reside
permanently in the United States (what this report will refer to as the "pool" of the
undocumented), there is also a constant "flow" of undocumented individuals coming in
and out of the country. Although more than 700,000 undocumented persons successfully
enter the country each year,15 approximately 215,000 leave due to forced deportation by
the government or voluntarily choosing to return home. (See Illustration 1.)
Contrary to conventional wisdom, many more people leave the country
voluntarily than are deported. From 1995 to 1999, more than three times as many
individuals voluntarily left the country as were forced by the government (165,000
voluntarily; 50,000 forced).16 This is largely because overstays face a miniscule risk of
arrest (less than 2 percent).17 For those not in targeted groups"”criminal aliens,
smugglers, illegal workers at airports and critical infrastructure locations, and those
involved in control programs such as Special Registration"”the risk of apprehension
drops essentially to zero. In 2003, a mere 445 undocumented workers, out of a total
population of 6.3 million, were arrested at a worksite.18
The reason for the low number of deportations is clear: lack of resources. Facing
an undocumented population of more than 10 million with approximately 10,700 border
agents and 2,200 interior enforcement agents,19 the government has been forced to make
hard choices in its enforcement priorities, especially since September 11. Officials have
acknowledged they have been simply unable to implement extensive enforcement
policies, and instead focus almost exclusively on criminal aliens and individuals with
connections to terrorist activity.20 As a result, the vast majority of the undocumented
have not been deported.
Recognizing the severely strained resources currently available to the federal
government serves as a useful caution for those who advocate an enforcement strategy
dependent on widespread deportation.
III. Cost Estimates
The cost estimates presented in this report are based on a single goal: driving the
undocumented population to zero through a policy of widespread deportation. As
explained above, the undocumented population has two distinct components: the "pool"
of those already residing in the country and the "flow" of those who come across the
border each year. Different policy considerations are involved in each.
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 4
A. The Pool
Current estimates put the pool of undocumented at approximately 10 million
persons.21 A key factor in evaluating a deportation policy designed at removing this
population is how many individuals and families will leave the country voluntarily in
response to a government crackdown. Proponents of a deportation policy have predicted
the deterrent effect would be significant, but little hard data exists to support this claim,
particularly because a widespread deportation policy of this size has never been
successfully completed.22
Although precise numbers are difficult to obtain, the immigration crackdown after
September 11 (including the immediate detention of hundreds of foreign nationals in the
weeks after the attacks and the implementation of the National Security Entry-Exit
Registration System in 2002-03) suggests that particularized raids in certain communities
may cause some individuals to depart.23 But it is clear that the number of departures by
foreign nationals after September 11 was negligible when compared to the overall
population of the undocumented. In fact, despite an environment after September 11 that
arguably marked the highest level of anti-immigrant sentiment in recent memory,24 the
undocumented population has grown consistently over the last four years.25
Another key factor in evaluating deportation policy is the role of long-term
undocumented immigrants. Although many of the undocumented are recent arrivals,
millions have established functioning lives and community ties that they would be
unwilling to disrupt casually. More than 6 million of the undocumented currently hold
jobs. Perhaps more importantly, there are 3.2 million children who are U.S. citizens by
birth but live in households headed by an undocumented immigrant"”such "mixed
status" families pose a particular challenge in encouraging departure.26
Although these facts and anecdotal evidence suggest the deterrent effect will be
smaller than many proponents of a deportation policy have predicted, this report
presumes a voluntary departure rate of 20%.27 In other words, once a deportation policy
is put in place, we assume 2 million of the 10 million undocumented individuals will
voluntarily leave the country, resulting in a balance of 8,000,000 undocumented
immigrants the government must locate and deport. This report also presents estimates
for a smaller voluntary departure rate of 10% that would result in a balance of 9,000,000
to deport. (See Table 1.)
1. Apprehension
The first, and most important, cost driver for a government deportation policy is
locating and arresting the undocumented. This cost of apprehension varies widely
depending on the location, circumstances and the length of time an undocumented
immigrant has lived in the country. For example, locating day laborers in border cities is
significantly easier than identifying people who are firmly "in the shadows," working for
decades in small towns with U.S.-born children. In short, some of the undocumented will
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 5
be more readily apprehended than others, making an overall average number difficult to
obtain.
Recent reports of worksite enforcement, however, offer a useful indicator of
average apprehension costs. We extrapolate from the available evidence to provide an
estimate of the per-apprehension cost. In 1999, 240 agents apprehended 2,849
unauthorized workers, and, as noted above, 90 agents apprehended 445 unauthorized
workers in 2003.28 Assuming a typical annual cost of $175,714 per agent,29 and after
summing the number of apprehensions (3,289) and agents (330), the average
apprehension cost comes to $17,603. Assuming a 20% voluntary departure rate, the total
costs for apprehending 8,000,000 undocumented immigrants would be $141 billion over
five years. (Using the same average apprehension figure, apprehending 9,000,000
immigrants would cost $158 billion over five years.)
Any estimate of an average apprehension cost is of course subject to debate, as
some could argue that agents would be more efficient in apprehending immigrants if a
massive crackdown were to occur.30 Many signs, however, point in the opposite
direction. $17,603 could very well underestimate the true costs of locating and arresting
8,000,000 people. A vast majority of the 2,000,000 who we estimate will voluntarily
depart under a massive deportation program would likely be individuals who are easier to
locate than others, leaving millions of undocumented persons who are both difficult to
locate and not inclined to leave the country.
A close look at a recent enforcement action demonstrates the sheer enormity of
the problem enforcement agents face in apprehending immigrants. On July 1,
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the federal government agency
responsible for enforcing our nation's immigration laws, announced a sweeping
crackdown on two smuggling and prostitution rings that arranged for hundreds of female
prostitutes to be brought from South Korea to California every year.31 The cost and
scope of the undertaking are noteworthy. According to ICE, even though the
investigation involved more than 1,000 law enforcement officials over nine months, they
resulted in only 45 arrests and the detention of 150 immigrants. Although detailed costs
are not available, even with very conservative economic assumptions, the average
apprehension cost is more than $70,000.32
These raids are a useful reminder that although the true costs of detecting and
apprehending 8,000,000 immigrants are unknown, they will undoubtedly be considerable
and possibly exceed the average cost of $17,603 used in this report.
2. Detention
Once undocumented immigrants are apprehended, they must be detained, which
incurs significant fixed costs. The U.S. Government currently has the resources to hold
only 19,400 immigrants, less than 1% of the total undocumented population.33 Given the
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 6
meager supply of current space, the government would need to immediately build, or
acquire,34 additional beds before the five-year deportation policy could even begin.
Each immigrant spends an average of 42.5 days in detention before he or she is
deported,35 meaning that each bed turns over more than 8 immigrants per year.
Therefore, 166,647 additional beds would need to be constructed before mass
deportations could begin. New prison beds cost a minimum of $14,000 per bed (and are
likely substantially more expensive),36 resulting in a total one-time cost of $2.33 billion
to create sufficient bed space. (Detaining 9,000,000 immigrants would require building
189,902 additional beds at a one-time cost of $2.66 billion.) These costs do not include
the expenses of maintaining the beds after the completion of the five-year deportation
program.
Once the detention facilities are constructed, the average cost of detaining an
immigrant must be calculated. Each bed costs the government $90 per day to maintain.37
Given the average of 42.5 days in detention,38 the average per immigrant cost of
detention comes to $3,825. With 8,000,000 undocumented persons to deport, the total
cost of detention is $30.6 billion over five years. (Using the same average detention
figure, detaining 9,000,000 immigrants would cost $34.4 billion over five years.)
3. Legal Costs
Although the last decade has seen a steady erosion of due process rights for
immigrants through federal legislation and executive branch policies,39 the Constitution
extends due process rights to all "persons," not solely U.S. citizens, meaning that anyone
detained by the government must be permitted to present a case, however limited, in a
neutral forum.
This forum is typically administered at an immigration court by an immigration
judge, which must issue a final "removal" order before an immigrant can be deported.
More than 200 immigration judges currently hear cases in immigration courts (sometimes
held in prisons and jails) throughout the country.40 These courts are administered by the
Executive Office of Immigration Review (EOIR), an agency within the Department of
Justice. (The Board of Immigration Appeals, which hears the appeals of the decisions by
immigration judges, is also part of the EOIR.)
The FY2004 budget for the EOIR was $195 million,41 and during that year, the
EOIR processed 163,857 removals.42 Although the EOIR handles a much larger docket
than just deportation, a rough estimate of the average cost of legal processing per
immigrant can be calculated by dividing the office's total budget by the number of
removals. Applied to a population of 8,000,000, the estimated legal costs come to $9.5
billion over five years. (Using the same average cost figure, processing 9,000,000
immigrants would cost $10.7 billion over five years.)
Estimating legal costs with precision is difficult because of the wide variance in
legal process afforded each immigrant. Some immigrants are able to pursue their cases
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 7
for years, while others, such as criminal aliens, have very limited avenues of appeal.
Perhaps more importantly, many immigrants, including those currently counted in the
undocumented population, may have a legal claim that they are entitled to lawful
residence.43 Such claims will require evaluation by the immigration court system and
could possibly delay the deportation process.
Some proposals for a massive deportation policy address this problem by sharply
curtailing the legal rights currently afforded immigrants, such as limiting the time for
judicial review to only 72 hours after arrest.44 Such proposals may not only run afoul of
the Constitution and current law, but would do little to change the cost estimates, as even
a truncated appeals process could still involve significant costs. For example, the average
court costs for a conviction for driving under the influence (DUI) in Illinois, not
including appeals, are $500; average legal fees are typically $2,000.45
4. Transport
Undocumented immigrants who have been arrested, detained, and processed still
need to be transported from the United States to a host country willing to receive them.
These costs depend on where they will be sent and where the undocumented currently
reside.
The most common destination for transporting the undocumented would be
Mexico, as approximately 5 million unauthorized Mexican nationals currently reside in
the U.S.46 While most immigrants caught crossing the border are now driven back to
locations near the border, the recently renewed Interior Repatriation Program has begun
flying Mexican nationals to Mexico City in order to reduce the potential for them to
attempt another illegal crossing. In 2004, more than 14,000 immigrants were flown back
to Mexico City at an approximate cost of $1,000 per person.47 While immigration
officials vow to reduce these costs this year,48 the initial expense indicates the cost of
repatriating Mexicans well beyond the border is considerably higher than merely
transporting them across the border, where many attempt re-entry soon thereafter.
Costs for plane flights to the other home countries of the undocumented would
also be costly. One-way plane fare to El Salvador, the second-largest home country for
the undocumented, costs approximately $534 per person. Plane flights to Guatemala, the
third-largest home country, cost approximately $550 per person, and flights to China, the
fifth-largest home country, cost approximately $1,126. In total, the average cost of
airfare to the 15 largest home countries (including Mexico at a rate of only $400 per
person) is $694.31 per person.49
Transportation within the United States must also be taken into account, as the
undocumented have become increasingly geographically diversified and less
concentrated. Traditionally, six states (California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois,
and New Jersey) have accounted for nearly all the undocumented population, but now
other states, such as Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee, attract an
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 8
increasing share of the population, making the task of transporting the undocumented that
much harder, and more expensive.50
Given the costs of both airfare to foreign nations and ground transportation within
the United States and across the border, we have estimated an average cost of $1,000 per
person for transportation, resulting in a total of $8 billion over five years. (Using the
same average cost figure, processing 9,000,000 immigrants would cost $9 billion over
five years.)
5. Summary
Reducing the pool of the undocumented population to zero has five main elements:
apprehension, detention, building additional beds, legal processing, and transportation.
TABLE 2:
Costs of Reducing Pool of 10 Million Undocumented Population to Zero
Over Five Years Under Different Assumptions
(in millions $)
Number of Involuntary
Removals
8.0 million
(assumes 20% leave voluntarily)
9.0 million
(assumes 10% leave voluntarily)
Apprehension $140,824 $158,427
Detention $30,600 $34,425
Additional Beds $2,333 $2,659
Legal Processing $9,539 $10,732
Transportation $8,000 $9,000
Total Cost $191,296 $215,243
All figures in nominal dollars.
B. The Flow
In addition to reducing the pool of the undocumented, a policy that aims to reduce the
undocumented population to zero must also address the incoming flow across our
borders, especially our southern border with Mexico. Although some of the future flow
would likely subside if a massive deportation policy were adopted within the United
States, this report assumes the demand at our border will remain unchanged over the fiveyear
period.51
As noted above, approximately 485,000 people are added to the undocumented
population each year due to illegal border crossings. This number, however, is a small
fraction of the number of attempts that are made at the border annually. Last year, the
border patrol apprehended 1,139,282 migrants at the Southwest Border alone,52 and
approximately 700,000 successfully entered the country illegally.53 (215,000 leave each
year through voluntary departure or deportation by the government.) These numbers
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 9
suggest that the efficiency of the border agents is approximately 63%, meaning that just
under four of 10 attempts to cross the border illegally are successful.
Assuming that each of the 700,000 migrants who currently enter without
inspection would be arrested on their first crossing attempt if the Border Patrol was
provided with additional resources, and with the average cost of a border arrest currently
at $1,700,54 the cost of hiring a sufficient number of additional border agents would be
$5.95 billion over five years. Combined with the amount the government currently
spends on border patrol ($9 billion over five years), the total amount needed to apprehend
all attempted border crossings would be $14.95 billion over five years.
It is important to note that unlike the costs of reducing the pool of the
undocumented, the costs at the border will likely continue well beyond the lifespan of the
five-year deportation plan. As long as a demand exists for crossing our borders, the need
for border agents will exist. We estimate these costs to be $2.99 billion per year in
perpetuity, but have excluded those from the total cost estimate presented in this report
because they fall outside the five-year time period.
TABLE 3:
Costs of Reducing the Flow to Zero Over Five Years
(in millions $)
Current Border Patrol Costs $8,995
Additional Border Patrol Costs $5,950
Total Border Patrol Costs $14,945
All figures in nominal dollars.
IV. Conclusion
The cost assessment presented in this report hopefully illustrates the false allure of
adopting a mass deportation policy as a response to the challenges threatening our
immigration system. The costs of a massive deportation policy would not only be
substantial, but in many ways, financially reckless. Implementing such a policy would
seriously jeopardize our commitment to secure the homeland and pay for our
commitments overseas, as well as threaten other vital national priorities.
Moreover, our estimates do not include the potential costs associated with the
negative shock to our economy of losing 6.3 million workers over the relatively short
timeframe of five years. A recent study concluded that immigration is an essential
element of our nation's economic growth and that immigrants provide a net fiscal benefit
to the country.55 With a population of nearly 22 million foreign-born workers,56
deporting the undocumented would amount to removing approximately one-third of a
vital pillar of our nation's economy.
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 10
In sum, dealing with the problem of the undocumented is an issue of increasing
national urgency. Policymakers must address the problem seriously; not with the costly
and unrealistic idea of mass deportation.
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 11
ILLUSTRATION 1
Overview of Undocumented Immigrant Population: Inflow, Pool and Outflow
1 Some portion of the outflow of the undocumented is also attributable to death.
Inflow:
Undocumented
Entrants
Inflow: Visa
Overstays
Pool: Undocumented Immigrants
10.3 million (2005)
Outflow:
Voluntary
Departure Outflow:
Forced
Deportation
Outflow:
Legalization1
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 12
Endnotes
1 Rajeev Goyle is the senior domestic policy analyst at the Center for American Progress. David Jaeger is
an associate professor of economics at The College of William & Mary.
2 The most recent study estimated the current undocumented population to be 10.3 million. See Jeffrey S.
Passel, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Background Briefing Prepared for Task
Force on Immigration and America's Future, Pew Hispanic Center, June 14, 2005, at 3, available at
http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/46.pdf (last viewed July 17, 2005).
3 A comprehensive reform bill, sponsored by Sens. McCain (R-AZ) and Kennedy (D-MA), calls for
undocumented persons, after meeting certain requirements, to receive legal status that could eventually lead
to legal permanent residence. See S. 1033, Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act. Another
comprehensive reform bill, sponsored by Sens. Cornyn (R-TX) and Kyl (R-AZ), would permit
undocumented immigrants to obtain temporary legal status but require them to return home before applying
for legal permanent residence. See S. 1438, Comprehensive Enforcement and Immigration Reform Act.
4 See e.g., Ralph Z. Hallow, "Gingrich urges action against illegals," Washington Times, Feb. 21, 2005
(describing proposal by former Rep. Newt Gingrich to seal the northern and southern borders, deport all
illegal immigrants within 72 hours of their arrest and deprive them of federal court review), available at
http://washtimes.com/national/20050221-123840-4099r.htm (last viewed July 17, 2005). More than 70
members of Congress have joined the Immigration Reform Caucus headed by Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO),
see http://tancredo.house.gov/irc/welcome.htm (last viewed July 17, 2005). One-quarter of the public
believes that a massive deportation policy could be accomplished. See A National Survey of Voter
Attitudes On Immigration, National Immigration Forum, Lake Snell, Perry, Mermin & Associates/Tarrance
Group, Apr. 7, 2005, at 25, available at
http://immigrationforum.org/document...mmigration.pdf (last viewed July
17, 2005).
5 Several other policymakers have echoed Sen. Cornyn's concerns. Sen. McCain, for example, has noted,
"[I]t would be impossible to identify and round up all...of the undocumented...[and] aliens will not come
forward to simply ˜report and deport.'" Senate Floor Statement of Sen. John McCain, May 12, 2005.
Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said it would be impossible to deport all the
undocumented. See Tanya Weinberg, "Homeland security chief endorses legalizing undocumented
immigrants," South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Dec. 10, 2003.
6 Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2006, at 151,
available at
http://a255.g.akamaitech.net/7/255/2.../pdf/budget/dh
s.pdf (last viewed July 17, 2005).
7 Office of Management and Budget, Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United States Government,
Fiscal Year 2006, at 38, available at
http://a255.g.akamaitech.net/7/255/2...6/pdf/spec.pdf.
8 Ibid. at 39.
9 Costs of the war calculated from data provided by the Congressional Research Service. See Amy Belasco,
The Cost of Operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Enhanced Security, Congressional Research Service,
March 14, 2005, at 1, available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RS21644.pdf (last viewed July 17,
2005); Amy Belasco and Larry Nowels, FY2005 Supplemental Appropriations for Iraq and Afghanistan,
Tsunami Relief, and Other Activities, Congressional Research Service, May 12, 2005, at 1, available at
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32783.pdf (last viewed July 17, 2005).
10 Ibid.
11 Jerry Seper, "Rounding up all illegals 'not realistic'," The Washington Times, Sept. 10, 2004.
12 Passel at 5-6.
13 Current law allows for only 5,000 visas for new, unskilled year-round workers annually, despite the fact
that hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants are able to find work each year. Immigrant
Workers: A Key Component of Economic Security, National Immigration Forum, March 2003, available
at http://www.immigrationforum.org/Desk...aspx?tabid=175 (last viewed July 17, 2005).
14 Passel at 9.
15 Passel at 5.
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 13
16 Numbers calculated from data provided by the former Immigration and Naturalization Service. See
Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: 1990 to 2000, Office of
Policy and Planning, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, at 10 (Table C), available at
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/sta...eport_1211.pdf (last viewed July 17, 2005).
17 Overstay Tracking: A Key Component of Homeland Security and a Layered Defense, United States
Government Accountability Office, May 21, 2004, at 19, available at
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0482.pdf (last viewed July 17, 2005).
18 Richard M. Stana, Immigration Enforcement: Preliminary Observations on Employment Verification and
Worksite Enforcement Efforts, United States Government Accountability Office, June 21, 2005, at 15-16,
available at http://judiciary.house.gov/media/pdfs/stana062105.pdf (last viewed July 17, 2005); Passel at
26.
19 Department of Homeland Security, Budget-in-Brief, Fiscal Year 2006, at 8, available at
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlib...BIB-FY2006.pdf (last viewed July 17, 2005); Stana at 3.
The United States deploys fewer agents per mile of land border than other nations. Germany, for example,
deploys an average of 17.7 agents per mile while the U.S. deploys an average of only 5.5. See Rey
Koslowski, Real Challenges For Virtual Borders: The Implementation of US-VISIT, Migration Policy
Institute, at 56, available at http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/...ski_Report.pdf (last viewed July
17, 2005).
20 Seper, Washington Times, Sept. 10, 2004.
21 Passel at 1.
22 In the 1930s the U.S. government implemented the "Mexican Repatriation Program" which forcibly
removed approximately two million individuals of Mexican ancestry, 1.2 million of whom were U.S.
citizens. See California SB 670 (Sen. Dunn), introduced Feb. 22, 2005. In the 1950s, the government
conducted a similar program named "Operation Wetback" which resulted in the departure of 1.3 million
individuals of Mexican ancestry before the program was terminated due to lack of funds. See Juan Ramon
Garcia, Operation Wetback: The Massive Deportation of Mexican Workers in 1954, Greenwood Press:
Westport, CT (1980), at 224-228.
23 Michael Powell, "An Exodus Grows in Brooklyn," Washington Post, May 29, 2003; Mark Bellis, "U.S.
crackdown drives Muslims toward Canada," Toronto Star, Feb. 27, 2003.
24 One year after September 11, only one in three Americans said the government was not doing enough to
protect those being investigated for terrorist involvement. See Richard Morin and Claudia Deane, "Altered
Lives, Changing Attitudes: In Poll, Most Americans Say 9/11 Affected Them Permanently," Washington
Post, Sept. 8, 2002, at A1. In November 2001, only 30 percent of Americans believed the government was
not doing enough to protect the civil rights of suspected terrorists; nearly three of four said the government
should be able to wiretap conversations between suspected terrorists and their attorneys. Richard Morin and
Claudia Deane, "Most Americans Back U.S. Tactics," Washington Post, Nov. 29, 2001, at A1. In October
2001, eight of 10 Americans supported police authority to stop and search individuals who fit the profile of
a terrorist. Gary Langer, "Power to the Police," ABC News, Oct. 10, 2001, available at
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/night...oll011010.html (last viewed
Jul. 17, 2005).
25 Passel at 10.
26 Passel at 19.
27 Approximately 1.5% of the undocumented population (150,000 of 10 million) currently leaves
voluntarily. We estimate this rate would increase by more than a factor of ten under a mass deportation
policy.
28 Stana at 15.
29 The White House's FY2006 Budget increases border patrol funding by $36.9 million to hire an
additional 210 agents, resulting in a per agent cost of $175,714. Department of Homeland Security, Budgetin-
Brief, Fiscal Year 2006, at 8.
30 Some argue that adoption of the CLEAR Act (Clear Law Enforcement for Criminal Alien Removal Act)
would be a more cost-effective manner in which to apprehend and deport undocumented immigrants, as the
Act would authorize state and local law enforcement to enforce federal immigration law. No evidence
exists, however, that state and local law enforcement officials will be able to successfully locate and
apprehend undocumented persons more cheaply than federal agents. Moreover, states and localities will be
forced to spend additional money to make up for the loss of resources that immigration enforcement would
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 14
demand. A recent study by the Congressional Budget Office estimated the CLEAR Act would cost the
federal government $9 billion (the report did not assess potential costs to states and localities).
Congressional Budget Office, Cost Estimate: H.R. 2671: Clear Law Enforcement for Criminal Alien
Removal Act of 2003, Feb. 25, 2004, at 1.
31 "U.S. Agents Crack West Coast Human Smuggling, Trafficking Ring," Federal Information and News
Information and News Dispatch, Inc., July 1, 2005.
32 Assuming that of the 1,000 agents involved, only one-tenth (100) worked full time on the effort, and each
agent cost $175,714 per year, apprehending 250 undocumented immigrants would cost $70,286 per
immigrant.
33 Testimony of Victor Cerda, Acting Director of Detention and Removal, United States Department of
Homeland Security, before a Joint Hearing of the Immigration, Border Security and Citizenship
Subcommittee and the Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security Subcommittee, Apr. 14, 2005.
34 The federal government could lease detention space from states and localities rather than constructing
new beds as 67.7% of detainees are currently held at state and local jails under contract with the federal
government. Leasing space, however, would not alter the cost assessment of detention as there would be a
corresponding cost associated with displacing the inmates currently held in beds owned by states and
localities. See Alison Siskin and Margaret Mikyung Lee, Detention of Noncitizens in the United States,
Congressional Research Service, Nov. 2, 2002, at 14-15.
35 Alison Siskin, Immigration-Related Detention: Current Legislative Issues, Congressional Research
Service, Jan. 21, 2005, at Summary.
36 Lawrence Reed, Michigan's Prison Costs And What To Do About Them, Jan. 9, 2003, available at
http://www.mackinac.org/article.asp?ID=4959 (last viewed July 17, 2005).
37 Cerda, Apr. 14, 2005.
38 Siskin at i.
39 The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 and the USA PATRIOT Act
of 2001 substantially reduced immigrants' access to federal court. P.L. 104-208; P.L. 107-56. Executive
branch decisions have also curtailed legal rights extended to immigrants. See e.g., Memorandum from
Chief Immigration Judge Michael Creppy, Re: Cases Requiring Special Procedures, Sept. 21, 2001; U.S.
Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General, The September 11 Detainees: A Review of the
Treatment of Aliens Held on Immigration Charges in Connection with the Investigation of the September
11 Attacks, June 2003, at 167-180.
40 Office of the Chief Immigration Judge, Executive Office for Immigration Review, United States
Department of Justice, available at http://www.usdoj.gov/eoir/ocijinfo.htm (last viewed July 17, 2005).
41 Summary of Budget Authority By Appropriation, United States Department of Justice, available at:
http://www.usdoj.gov/jmd/2004summary/pdf/pg4-5.pdf.
42 FY 2004 Statistical Yearbook, United States Department of Justice, available at
http://www.usdoj.gov/eoir/statspub/fy04syb.pdf.
43 See David A. Martin, Twilight Statuses: A Closer Examination of the Unauthorized Population,
Migration Policy Institute, June 2005, available at http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI_PB_6.05.pdf
(last viewed July 17, 2005).
44 Hallow, Washington Times, Feb. 21, 2005.
45 Average Cost of a DUI Conviction in Illinois, available at
http://www.cyberdriveillinois.com/pu...section14.html (last viewed July 17, 2005).
46 Passel at 36-37.
47 Julia Gelatt and Jennifer, Free Flights and New Enforcement Proposals Address Unauthorized Migrants,
Migration Policy Institute, July 1, 2005, available at
http://www.migrationinformation.org/...lay.cfm?ID=322 (last viewed July 17, 2005).
48 Ibid.
49 Passel at 4; Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: 1990 to
2000, Office of Policy and Planning, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, at 9, available at
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/sta...eport_1211.pdf. Costs of air transport
calculated from lowest available online fares.
50 Passel at 12.
51 Although some percentage of border crossers will be less likely to attempt to cross after a mass
deportation program goes into effect, it is also likely that a percentage of the undocumented persons who
Deporting the Undocumented: A Cost Assessment 15
will be deported under this program will attempt to cross the border to re-enter the United States and
reclaim the lives they left behind.
52 Southwest Border Apprehensions, available at
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/abo...c04/swbord.htm (last viewed July 17, 2005).
53 Passel at 5.
54 Douglas S. Massey, Backfire at the Border: Why Enforcement without Legalization Cannot Stop Illegal
Immigration, Center for Trade Policy Studies, June 13, 2005, at 1.
55 Walter A. Ewing, The Economics of Necessity: Economic Report of the President Underscores the
Importance of Immigration, Immigration Policy in Focus, May 2005, at 1, available at
http://www.ailf.org/ipc/economicsofnecessity.asp (last viewed July 17, 2005).
56 Ibid.
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