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When Will FY2005 H1B Cap Be Reached? -- Very Soon!

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  • When Will FY2005 H1B Cap Be Reached? -- Very Soon!

    0) Introduction:
    Last year I started a project ( http://boards.immigrationportal.com/...d.php?t=112199 ) of H1B cap watching and successfully CALAULATED OUT rather than GUESS OUT the FY2004 65000 Cap's reaching time. That helps a lot of folks who relied on H1B visa. Let's do it again for FY2005.


    1) Historical Statistics & Review:

    FY2003:
    Total cases filed: 215,190
    Cap-subject cases: 79,100
    So the cap-subject ratio is: 79,100/215,000 = 36.7%

    FY2004:

    On Feb 17, 2004 USCIS announced that "it has received enough H-1B petitions to meet this year's congressionally mandated cap of 65,000 new workers". What we can learn from here is:
    Cap-subject cases: 58,200 (as of 02/17/2004, 65,000-reserved cases)
    The problem now is how do we know how many cases exactly USCIS received by 02/17/2004. Thanks to the site (http://www.immigrationwatch.com/) which maintains the monthly statistics of filings as well as approved ones, the total cases can be calculated as (the factor 0.5 is used to offset the month of Feb for 17 days):
    34576(Oct)+27874(Nov)+31406(Dec)+30875(Jan)+33173(Feb)*0.5 = 141,317
    So this concludes the cap-subject ratio: 58,200/141,317 = 41.2%

    This ratio is a little bit higher than FY2003's. But we can double-checked by another announcement: "On January 21, 2004 USCIS announced that 43,500 cases filed during the FY 2004 First Quarter could count against the H-1B Cap for FY 04". What we can learn from here is:
    Cap-subject cases: 43,500 (as of 12/31/2003)
    Total cases filed: 93,854 (34576(Oct)+27874(Nov)+31406(Dec))
    So this concludes the cap-subject ratio: 43,500/93,854 = 43.6%


    2) FY2005:

    This fiscal year is a little bit tricky or messy. As you all know, FY2005 starts from 10/01/2004 to 09/30/2005 but USCIS started accepting cases to feed the FY2005's cap from 04/01/2004. In other words, cases filed during 4/01/2004 and 09/30/2004 could belong to FY2004 (renewal, transfer, etc) or FY2005 (new hires). That makes the statistics very hard to interpret.

    There is a news reads: "Released just today, the most recent information regarding the H1B cap is that, as of August 4, 2004, 40,000 cases had been filed against the fiscal year (FY) 2005 cap". (Can any folks verify the news and point out the where-about on USCIS's site?). Let's do the same math:
    Cap-subject cases: 40,000 (as of 08/04/2004)
    The problem is again down to the total cases (as of 8/04/2004), since the site doesn't publish the July's statistics yet. The previous monthly data are:
    32034(Apr) --> 26559(May) --> 36097(Jun)
    Here, it's fair to assume July's comes out with no big surprise as ~32,000. Then we can proceed with our math:
    Total cases filed: 32034(Apr)+26559(May)+36097(Jun)+32,000(Jul) = 126,690
    So this concludes the cap-subject ratio of this year is: 40,000/126,690 = 31.6%


    3. CALCULATION:
    1) Based on a ratio of 31.6% (with assumption made above):
    a) Total cases needed to fill the cap: 58,200/31.6% = 184,000
    b) Time needed to fill the cap: (184,000-126,690)/32,000 = 1.79 month from 08/04/2004
    c) So when: 08/04/2004 + 1.79*30 = 09/27/2004
    2) Based on a ratio of 35.0% (historical statistics + FY2005's mess):
    a) Total cases needed to fill the cap: 58,200/35.0% = 166,285
    b) Time needed to fill the cap: (166,285-126,690)/32,000 = 1.24 month from 08/04/2004
    c) So when: 08/04/2004 + 1.24*30 = 09/13/2004

    4. CONCLUSIONS:
    The cap of FY2005 (58,200) can be filled at any time between 09/13/2004~09/27/2004. If the reserved number has remains for sharing, the reach time may be a little bit delay. Anyway, if you solely rely on H1B for your legal stay in USA and haven't file your petition yet, you should act very fast and push your employer or your company's lawyer harder.

    5. References:
    (1): http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaffa...irstQtrH1B.pdf
    (2): http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaffa...bcap_NRrev.pdf
    (3): http://http://boards.immigrationport...d.php?t=112199
    (4): http://www.immigrationwatch.com/


    6. DISCLAIMER: By the very nature of human beings, it's impossible to predict any future event. All I did here is simply a math calculation based on certain ASSUMPTIONS and HUMAN BEINGS' logics. View the results at your own discretion.

  • #2
    0) Introduction:
    Last year I started a project ( http://boards.immigrationportal.com/...d.php?t=112199 ) of H1B cap watching and successfully CALAULATED OUT rather than GUESS OUT the FY2004 65000 Cap's reaching time. That helps a lot of folks who relied on H1B visa. Let's do it again for FY2005.


    1) Historical Statistics & Review:

    FY2003:
    Total cases filed: 215,190
    Cap-subject cases: 79,100
    So the cap-subject ratio is: 79,100/215,000 = 36.7%

    FY2004:

    On Feb 17, 2004 USCIS announced that "it has received enough H-1B petitions to meet this year's congressionally mandated cap of 65,000 new workers". What we can learn from here is:
    Cap-subject cases: 58,200 (as of 02/17/2004, 65,000-reserved cases)
    The problem now is how do we know how many cases exactly USCIS received by 02/17/2004. Thanks to the site (http://www.immigrationwatch.com/) which maintains the monthly statistics of filings as well as approved ones, the total cases can be calculated as (the factor 0.5 is used to offset the month of Feb for 17 days):
    34576(Oct)+27874(Nov)+31406(Dec)+30875(Jan)+33173(Feb)*0.5 = 141,317
    So this concludes the cap-subject ratio: 58,200/141,317 = 41.2%

    This ratio is a little bit higher than FY2003's. But we can double-checked by another announcement: "On January 21, 2004 USCIS announced that 43,500 cases filed during the FY 2004 First Quarter could count against the H-1B Cap for FY 04". What we can learn from here is:
    Cap-subject cases: 43,500 (as of 12/31/2003)
    Total cases filed: 93,854 (34576(Oct)+27874(Nov)+31406(Dec))
    So this concludes the cap-subject ratio: 43,500/93,854 = 43.6%


    2) FY2005:

    This fiscal year is a little bit tricky or messy. As you all know, FY2005 starts from 10/01/2004 to 09/30/2005 but USCIS started accepting cases to feed the FY2005's cap from 04/01/2004. In other words, cases filed during 4/01/2004 and 09/30/2004 could belong to FY2004 (renewal, transfer, etc) or FY2005 (new hires). That makes the statistics very hard to interpret.

    There is a news reads: "Released just today, the most recent information regarding the H1B cap is that, as of August 4, 2004, 40,000 cases had been filed against the fiscal year (FY) 2005 cap". (Can any folks verify the news and point out the where-about on USCIS's site?). Let's do the same math:
    Cap-subject cases: 40,000 (as of 08/04/2004)
    The problem is again down to the total cases (as of 8/04/2004), since the site doesn't publish the July's statistics yet. The previous monthly data are:
    32034(Apr) --> 26559(May) --> 36097(Jun)
    Here, it's fair to assume July's comes out with no big surprise as ~32,000. Then we can proceed with our math:
    Total cases filed: 32034(Apr)+26559(May)+36097(Jun)+32,000(Jul) = 126,690
    So this concludes the cap-subject ratio of this year is: 40,000/126,690 = 31.6%


    3. CALCULATION:
    1) Based on a ratio of 31.6% (with assumption made above):
    a) Total cases needed to fill the cap: 58,200/31.6% = 184,000
    b) Time needed to fill the cap: (184,000-126,690)/32,000 = 1.79 month from 08/04/2004
    c) So when: 08/04/2004 + 1.79*30 = 09/27/2004
    2) Based on a ratio of 35.0% (historical statistics + FY2005's mess):
    a) Total cases needed to fill the cap: 58,200/35.0% = 166,285
    b) Time needed to fill the cap: (166,285-126,690)/32,000 = 1.24 month from 08/04/2004
    c) So when: 08/04/2004 + 1.24*30 = 09/13/2004

    4. CONCLUSIONS:
    The cap of FY2005 (58,200) can be filled at any time between 09/13/2004~09/27/2004. If the reserved number has remains for sharing, the reach time may be a little bit delay. Anyway, if you solely rely on H1B for your legal stay in USA and haven't file your petition yet, you should act very fast and push your employer or your company's lawyer harder.

    5. References:
    (1): http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaffa...irstQtrH1B.pdf
    (2): http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaffa...bcap_NRrev.pdf
    (3): http://http://boards.immigrationport...d.php?t=112199
    (4): http://www.immigrationwatch.com/


    6. DISCLAIMER: By the very nature of human beings, it's impossible to predict any future event. All I did here is simply a math calculation based on certain ASSUMPTIONS and HUMAN BEINGS' logics. View the results at your own discretion.

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