Recent data reveals that increasing numbers of asylum seekers are failing to appear for their Immigration Court hearings and effectively abandoning their applications to remain in the United States.

In FY2023, there were 13,319 abandoned cases in our nation's Immigration Courts; in FY2024, there were 18,436 abandonments; and in FY2025, the first year of the Trump Administration, the number of abandoned cases soared to 51,446.

The most obvious explanation for the dramatic increase in "no shows" is that people fear they will be detained when they appear for their hearing. Widely-shared videos show ICE agents detaining people--often roughly--in Immigration Court. While the number of such arrests is relatively modest, the incidents have caused wide-spread fear among those with court appearances. These arrests seem to be a deliberate tactic to intimidate non-citizens into abandoning their applications to remain in the United States. Before the recent spate of arrests, my clients generally preferred in-person hearings, as they could more effectively communicate with the judge. Now, most applicants hope for a virtual hearing to reduce the risk of detention.

Aside from intimidating people into abandoning their cases, the courthouse arrests make it more difficult for those who do attend their hearings. It's stressful to testify in court even under the best of circumstances. But these days, the stress is amplified by the ever-present threat of being snatched away by ICE agents. Also, witnesses who could help support a case may be intimidated into staying away. It's not great for attorneys either, as we want to focus on preparing for our case and not worrying about how to confront ICE.

While it seems pretty clear that courthouse arrests are a major reason that some non-citizens are abandoning their cases, what are the odds of actually being detained when you appear for your hearing?

A recent analysis of arrests during May, June, and July 2025 identified 2,388 people who were detained at their Immigration Court hearings. The study's author expects that this number is an under-count, but it is the closest estimate we have so far. Compare that with data from EOIR, which shows that during the same period there were 364,262 court hearings. If these figures are accurate, it means that during those three months in 2025, a non-citizen appearing in Immigration Court had less than a 1% chance of being detained. This number seems about right overall, but the odds of detention vary widely depending on the particular court and each person's individual circumstances.

ICE operations seem to target one court and then another, and so the risk of detention increases if ICE happens to be focusing on your court at the time of your hearing. If you have a lawyer, the lawyer may have an idea about what's happening at your local court. There are also websites that try to track ICE activity, and while these are not entirely reliable, they may help give you an idea of the risk in your location.

Also, based on what I've seen, some individuals are more likely to be detained than others. People who arrived without a visa at the U.S.-Mexican border and people have arrived based on humanitarian parole have a greater chance of detention than people who entered with a visa, filed affirmatively for asylum, and were then referred to Immigration Court. Also, people with prior deportation orders, criminal convictions, or even arrests without convictions, are more likely to be detained than people who do not have criminal issues or removal orders.

If you are at risk of detention, you can take steps to prepare in advance. You can request a virtual hearing, though for the most part, judges will not accommodate such requests. Also, have a friend or family member who can help you and who has access to your documents. Make a plan for your spouse and children, and your property. If possible, set aside money to post bond and hire a lawyer to help with your case and assist if you are detained. Gather your evidence and prepare for your hearing, so that everything is ready and you can present the strongest possible case even if you are detained. And remember, just because you are detained does not mean that you can't win your case--you still can!

If you are thinking of skipping your Immigration Court hearing for fear of detention, you should know that failure to appear in court almost guarantees that you will be ordered deported. You may be able to appeal such a ruling or try to reopen your case, but those options rarely succeed.

Before abandoning your case, it is worthwhile to talk with a lawyer to evaluate the merits of your application and the likelihood of being detained. For some people--those with a weak case and a relatively high probability of detention--it may not be worth the risk of going to court. Sadly, in the current environment, giving up is not necessarily illogical.

However, for most people, it makes sense to attend their hearings. The overall likelihood of detention is quite low, and if you prepare your case in advance, evaluate the risks, and have a plan, you will maximize the possibility of a successful outcome, even if you are detained.

Asylum seekers are brave and resilient people. Despite the Trump Administration's best efforts to terrify and intimidate them, I have confidence that most will never give up. I also have hope that in the end, they will find the safety and peace that they deserve.
Originally posted on the Asylumist: www.Asylumist.com