Comment: Preparing For EB5 Gold Rush

Preparing For EB5 Gold Rush

Introduction: 
To understand what to expect as we head towards the September 30th deadline, lets look at:

• EB5 Demand
• EB5 Supply
• How to prepare for the September 30, 2026 EB5 gold rush 

EB5 Demand:

• Of the $50+ billion raised in EB5 over the last 35 years, 65% of EB5 investments have come in just before government deadlines. There are 3 kinds of deadlines as below

• Big similarity between 2016 and 2026 - Green Card subject to RC program renewal (but the terms of renewal are unknown and in play in 2026, unlike 2016) 
• Big difference between 2016 and 2026 - China is 50% of the world instead of 90%, so happenings in India, Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam will affect China, so only way to understand demand is to look at total global demand, not just China demand. 
• Recent changes in Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam: all 3 have moved toward rural 
• Recent changes in USA - the Trump effect continues to move Indians in USA toward EB5 instead of EB2/EB3 where Indian Green Card waiting times are 100+ years!
• In Q3 2016, 6,000+ applications poured in to USCIS - in Q3 2026, 3,000+, or perhaps 4,000+, or even 5,000+ applications will likely come in to USCIS, because September 30, 2026 is a statutory deadline, the biggest deadline in a decade 

EB5 Supply:

• USCIS data above shows I-956F applications dropped 75% in 2025
• This portends significant reductions in number of projects available to EB5 investors in 2026
• HUA projects in oversupply, Rural projects relatively few - agents face a tough choice: relax underwriting standards for Rural OR lose market share in Q3, 2026

How to prepare for the September 30, 2026 EB5 gold rush:

• Most people in the EB5 ecosystem–whether in projects, or in agents, or in Regional Centers–were not in the EB5 industry in 2016, only 5% to 10% of the people in the global EB5 industry have memories of 2016. There is no institutional memory to prepare for what is coming
• Here is what we expect based on anecdotes from the 2016 EB5 deadline:
• In the last 3 months before the deadline there will be no vacations for anyone in the industry. There will be many vacations after September 30
• In the final days before the 2016 deadline, people brought sleeping bags to their office and stayed there to get all the applications in before the deadline. We expect the same this time around
• In September, many I-526E skeletal applications will be filed to meet the deadline. Similarly, from July onward, many projects will file skeletal I-956F applications
• In the hectic period before the deadline, market shares of large players will fall as larger players are less able to adjust quickly in a chaotic market. This is a major opportunity for smaller agents. More attractive projects will sell out early and in the final month, the market will be full of chaotic bursts which is a good environment for smaller nimbler players

Conclusion: 
Prepare for an EB5 Tsunami in June, July, August and September 2026.

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