Comment: EB5 Supply and Demand

The EB5 market before November 2019 was dominated by large urban developers who had considerable EB5 experience under their belt. They have been frozen out of the EB5 market due to the new TEA definitions. Small and medium size developers in rural parts of the country that have not been using EB5 before are now the market. Due to overall shrinkage of the size of the market, large raises of $100-$200 million in a single year are no longer viable, and there is a shift towards smaller raises of $10, $20 & $30 million dollars. Consequently, there is a shift in the EB5 market from Large Urban projects to Small Rural/Distressed urban projects. See below 

EB5 Supply and Demand

The real problem is not demand, but supply. The difference between real and latent supply is crucial here. Just like there is a difference between real demand and latent demand, there is a difference between real supply and latent supply. A person who is vaguely considering making an EB5 investment but is not taking any concrete action of meeting projects - this person does not constitute real demand but latent demand, hence he/she is not part of the market. Similarly, any company who has finished their EB5 project documents but is not making any active efforts such as traveling/calling/emailing to market their EB5 securities is not real supply but latent supply and hence this company is not part of the market. While demand for EB5 is down due to covid, the supply of EB5 securities is down even more due to the change in TEA definitions.

75% of the supply of EB5 securities was wiped out by the November 2019 regulations. Furthermore, 75% of people who were part of the EB5 ecosystem have exited the market. A 75% change in people is cataclysmic for any market. Change of TEA definitions has been more devastating to the EB5 market than covid. As anyone who has used EB5 financing knows, there is a huge learning curve for those entering the EB5 market for the first time. Nevertheless, there IS a small EB5 market, and it IS a party for those who can make the most of it. Those who are early to this party in 2021 will be laughing all the way to the bank in 2021 and 2022, because as covid recedes demand will be greater than the greatly reduced supply.

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The IIUSA EB-5 Industry Forum is the premier event in U.S. investment and immigration business development and education. After a nearly two-year, COVID-induced hiatus, IIUSA is proud to once again present the EB-5 Industry Forum. The event is the industry's premier business development and educational platform developed to connect attorneys, regional centers, project sponsors, foreign intermediaries, and more. EB-5 job-creation and economic development financing will have a critically important role to play in national economic recovery and job-creation efforts in the wake of COVID-19 and we look forward to providing the industry with key updates as we look ahead to a new and brighter future for the Program. Where: Orlando, FL When: Wed, Oct 6 to Oct 8. Find out more and Register here .

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