Comment: EB5 Short, Medium, Long term outlook

Because of many factors affecting the EB5 market, the market looks very different in 3 different time frames: short term, medium term and long term. By short term, we mean 2021; by medium term, we mean 2022 to 2024 and by long term, we mean 2025 and beyond.

EB5 Market: Short Term, Medium Term & Long Term

Time Period

Investment Outlook

Past (2020)

There was an EB5 market of less than $200 million in 2020.

Short Term (2021)

It appears that the market in 2021 will be about $600 million as EB5 rebounds as covid recedes. Vaccinations in the US will make travel within the US come roaring back and along with it the H1B to EB5 market within the US. International travel will not recover in 2021 due to the variation in successes in countries fighting covid and a constantly changing patchwork of restrictions across international boundaries. The $900k investment amount has been already absorbed by the market, this is no longer the problem. Furthermore, the new $900k market is more efficient for issuers raising EB5 capital.

Medium Term (2022-2024)

Once covid is out of the picture at the global level, in the medium term we expect the market to recover to $1.2 billion in 2022 to 2024, as country after country comes back online. Given the new TEA rules, we will see the rise of new EB5 projects in rural and distressed urban areas. These will be a large number of companies raising relatively modest amounts each compared to the 2019 market of large raises. $1.2 billion in annual incoming investments is not the kind of market that large urban developers want to play in, but a $1.2billion market is just right for many smaller developers.

Long Term (2025 and beyond)

By 2025 we expect the market to reach $2 billion. Due to the reduced usage of the EB5 quota in 2020 and 2021 through 2024, we expect priority dates for Vietnam and China to gallop forward, bringing those two countries roaring back into the EB5 market in the long term.

Summary: In the short term the EB5 market is dominated by covid. As covid recedes there will be a recovery first in the US and then, a year or two later, internationally. The unused quota during this time will bring the large EB5 countries of Vietnam and China back into the EB5 market by 2025.

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