Comment: 2021 EB5 Market Outlook

USCIS published the numbers for EB5 investments for 2020. In Q1 there were 21 investments, in Q2 40 investments, in Q3 53 investments and in Q4 we are expecting 75+ investments (Q4 numbers are not published yet.) That would be a total of about $200 million of EB5 investments for 2020. What does this imply about the EB5 market for when Covid is gone? There are two possible reasons for the decrease in the size of the EB5 market:

  1. The reason for the slowdown could be due to the increase of investment amount from $500k to $900k--in which case the EB5 market would remain small once covid is gone.
  2. The reason for the slowdown could be covid. All travel-related industries have seen a massive drop off due to covid. EB5 is a travel-related industry and it will bounce back strongly after covid is gone, just like Disney World will.

    Most people in the EB5 industry are on the fence about which of the two factors above is the cause for the slowdown. We believe that both factors are operative to some extent. To the best of our information the $200 million market in the last year is mostly due to covid. The market has grown steadily during the year from 20 investments per quarter to 75+ investments per quarter --we think that the increase in the investment amount was a major factor during the early part of the year but is dissipating as a factor, as time progresses.

  3. There is a third factor that most in the industry are not aware of. Supply of EB5 investments plummeted due to change in TEA definitions and not many projects have been actively seeking investors during 2020 as compared to 2019. Just as demand creates its own supply, so does supply create its own demand, so this third factor was also operative in 2020.

Our best assessment is the 2021 sans-Covid would be $1billion in EB5 investments without covid and close to $500million even with covid provided there is a sufficient supply of projects throughout the year. The travel industry is expected to bounce back strongly due to pent up demand. It has become clear during the pandemic that EB5 is a travel-related industry and we expect a huge surge in EB5 just as there will surely be a huge surge in cruise line bookings, and for the same reason - pent up demand.

If you are looking to raise $10million, $15million, $20million or $25million, these are all realistic goals in 2021. If your raise is more than $100 million you may need to spread it over a longer period of time or do it in tranches. Because these smaller investment amounts are more attractive for smaller operating companies as opposed to larger Real Estate companies, we are seeing a flood of new players entering the EB5 market seeking 2 to 3 investors each which now account for as much as 10% of the total EB5 market.

When covid first appeared in NYC, most players in the EB5 industry thought that covid would disappear by June 2020 and were planning overseas events then, and they were wrong then. We kept insisting then that covid would last much longer, and we were right. Similarly, most players in the EB5 industry are now acting as if covid is here to stay well into 2022, and we believe this belief is mistaken. CDC is expecting covid will end in America early this summer. Some countries like Israel are ahead of us and most countries are behind. Overseas travel will resume many months after domestic travel in the US. The good news is that the largest EB5 market in the world--that of Indians on H1Bs in the US--is right here in the US and will be fully accessible this spring/summer. Just as we were ahead of the curve in warning of covid lasting much longer than expected in early 2020, we think we are ahead of the curve again today in expecting that America and the EB5 market will recover from covid much earlier than most folks in the industry expect. Those who are able to see clearly into the future now will benefit by getting EB5 investments as soon as the post-covid surge begins - the early bird gets the worm!

Please let us know your thoughts by writing to us at editor@ilw.com

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Focus: H1B to EB5 Webinar

Don't Get Behind on your EB5 Raise
The world after coronavirus is radically different, and it may last a lot longer than any of us would prefer. However, the world does not stop due to a virus - our H1B to EB5 Webinar allows you to continue your EB5 raise in spite of the coronavirus.

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The good 'ole USA is the world's single largest EB5 market due to the H1Bs here looking to get a green card through EB5. With travel and in person events halted due to coronavirus, EB5 capital raises have been affected adversely. The good news is that through our H1B to EB5 Webinar, you can raise EB5 capital with just a click and you will be positioned to keep raising EB5 capital throughout the crisis period.

FORMAT
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HIGHLIGHTS
Save Costs/ Two Projects At A Time: As there is no cost associated with travel, venues etc., the overall cost is reduced. Our format splits that low cost between two projects presenting at an event to further lower the cost for you.

Ensure You Present Effectively: We will provide each of your speakers with a "screen test" which will not only make your presentation most effective, but will also upgrade your company's overall video capabilities.

Consultation : We will review your PowerPoint to make it impactful to this audience of Indian H1Bs.

WHY ILW?
We are proponents of American strength - this stems from immigrants seeking freedom and liberty - and is unique to America. Our vision is to catalyze immigration information into action by leveraging technology.

Our value proposition :

  • We have a profound grasp over migration to America: the forces of human migration and the political structure which channels these
  • We are connectors: we can connect anyone with anyone within the American immigration community
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By the numbers:

  • 1/3rd of active EB5 projects are our clients
  • 350+ EB5 events in China, India, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Turkey, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, UK, Canada, etc. 120+ in person H1B to EB5 events in 30+ cities across USA
  • During covid, 15+ online H1B to EB5 events, as well as 15+ online webinars for India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, South Africa, Korea, Taiwan, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Pakistan, etc

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