Comment: HR1044 n S386

The appropriations bill was supposed to be finalized Monday December 14 night. As of this writing, it is 60 hours late and news reports indicate that it is now to be completed by Monday the 21st--a delay of 120-150 hours or 5-7 days. The stated reason for the delay is inclusion of covid relief into the appropriations bill.

The odd thing is that nothing is leaking about the 2,000+ page bill from either side. What does that mean for the bill and what does that mean for immigration? Firstly between now and Monday, there is plenty of time for mischief. The lack of leaking indicates that there is a broad bipartisan agreement on almost all of the issues in the bill--so it is not in the interest of either party to leak to seek a political advantage. In a mammoth appropriations bill of 2.5 Trillion dollar magnitude, it is easy to tag on $1billion measures to buy support of specific Representatives/Senators without causing an uproar.

On immigration enforcement, the parties remain at their customary positions on thorny issues such as the border wall and ICE detention beds, so nothing much in enforcement will likely change in the bill. But benefits are another story. H2As and H2Bs are distinct candidates for inclusion, especially because Senator Tom Tillis, freshly re-elected, is likely to carry water for both: H2A--which typically has strong Republican support and H2B which is too narrow an issue to raise any serious opposition. Is anything likely on Dream? We do not think so. The advantage of pushing for a path to citizenship for Dreamers in the next Congress is politically more advantageous to everyone than merely granting status to Dreamers this late in this Congress.

That brings us to HR 1044/S 386. Prioritizing these benefits over Dreamers is dangerous for Speaker Pelosi's legacy, and may even jeopardize her re-election as speaker for reasons we wrote about in Immigration Daily on 12/11/2020. Also, as the bill benefits Chinese EB5s and Indian EB2/EB3s while hurting everyone else, it thus creates infighting among immigration benefits advocates. There has been a deafening silence on the inclusion of HR 1044/S 386 in the appropriations bill--this means that the decision on its inclusion or exclusion has likely already been made and maybe only a few dozen people know the situation for sure, and they are not talking. Given all the above we think that the balance of probability is that HR1044/S386 is not in the appropriations measure that will soon become law. Dream advocates should bear this in mind, since nothing is over till the fat lady sings, and she ain't singing yet for the last act of this Congress.


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