Comment: EB5 Triple Boom

The EB5 market was hit by triple whammies for the first 9 months of 2020.

  • Raising of investment amount from $500k to $900k

  • Change of TEA which put the large urban projects out of the EB5 market

  • The Covid crisis that brought economic and travel activity to a standstill globally

  • Those very same factors are now creating a triple boom in incoming EB5 investment, as follows:

  • Well over a dozen EB5 projects currently in the market are reporting wires coming in at the new $900k level. While there was an initial sticker shock, the market over time is adjusting to the higher price of EB5 investment as the era of the old price recedes in the market's memory. The quantity of investment continues to rise sharply as adjustment to the new price proceeds.

  • A large number of small projects satisfying the new TEA definition have entered the EB5 market and an even larger number of small projects will enter the market this fall and winter at a brisk pace. While there was initially a vacuum created in the market by the withdrawal of large urban projects, agents and finders overseas now have a plethora of options, so the supply-side bottleneck to the EB5 market is now gone.

  • As economies open across the world, even though covid hovers in the background, people get comfortable using online video, and get increasingly comfortable meeting people in socially distanced masked meetings, covid is beginning to decrease as an impediment to investment. Covid adjustment is a gradual process, and will take well over a year to fully unfold, unlike the above two issues (TEA and 900k) which are sharply receding as impediments and are consequently resulting in sharp rises in incoming EB5 wires.

  • The EB5 market was artificially depressed in the first half of 2020 due to the triple whammy, the market is now rebounding smartly due to abatement of those three whammies. Indeed, we are now at the early stage of a triple boom, caused by the receding of the very same triple whammies.

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