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Comment: Immigration Projections Rebound With Economy
Immigration and immigration forecasts are highly cyclical and depend heavily on the economy. FiveThirtyEight a website run by Nate Silver illustrates this well. The website compares the immigration projections made in 2008 (before the recession) with those made in 2012 and 2014.
In 2008, when the economy was booming, the estimate for immigration in 2015 was 1.4 million and the expectation was that it would grow linearly to 2.0 million in 2050. In 2012, with the economy in a poor shape, the projection for 2015 was lowered to only 0.8 million, reaching 1.2 million in 2050. With the economic recovery, the projections in 2014 have risen 56% for 2015 to 1.24 million, and to 1.5 million for 2050.
Projection made for 2015 Projection made for 2050 Projections made in 2012 0.8 million 1.2 million Projections made in 2014 1.24 million 1.5 million Projections made in 2008 1.4 million 2.0 million
This clearly demonstrates how dependent immigration and immigration projections are on the state of the economy. Please let us know your thoughts by writing to editor@ilw.com.
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