Even With The Child Separation Issue, Why Donald Trump Feels Confident About The Midterms


Democrats and liberal minded people hope that the child separation issue at the border will be the tipping point against Mr. Trump as the nation recoiled at images of crying children and children behind wire fences. They hope that this time the nation as a whole sees Donald Trump for what he really is – a mendacious accidental president who will stoop to the very abyss to get what he wants. That mendacity was on full display and exposed by his finally signing an executive order on June 20, 2018, halting the separation of migrant families and the ripping of children from the arms of their parents after a string of lies as to who was to blame, why he couldn’t do it, and why Congress had to act to protect them as part of a huge immigration bill bent on curbing U. S. immigration. Yet that unfortunately is a forlorn hope.

Mr. Trump once remarked that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and he wouldn’t lose voters. The period of time from now to the midterms is 4 ½ months, sufficient time in his eyes and those of the Republican Party for voters to forget what they would likely call his “hiccup.” They are banking on short memory of the public. The news cycle is ever churning with new news and issues appear and disappear in the flash of an eye. That is even more so with this president who dominates the media waves almost every day with his twitters and other messages. Who remembers Charlottesville? Who will remember Marjorie Stoneman Douglas? Mr. Trump is like a magician diverting the audience’s eyes while working the other hand.

The polls paint an alarming picture to his opposition. Trump’s job approval rating in early June was 45% in Gallup polling, tying his personal high. This was roughly equivalent to the approval rating of Presidents Obama, Clinton, Reagan, and Carter in their second year. His approval rating among black men at the end of April rose from 11% to 22% according to a Reuters poll. Among the total black community, it also nearly doubled from 8.9% to 16.5%. Why? It could well be because the black unemployment rate is hitting record lows – in May, that rate fell to 5.9%, the lowest since the government started keeping track in 1972. Many Asian-Americans, especially small business owners, are supporting Mr. Trump as they feel that the current business climate is heading in a positive direction and 87% believe that the new tax law will have a positive effect on the economy.

Hillary Clinton won the majority of votes in America, yet lost the election. In the midterms, the Republicans behind Trump do not have to win the majority, just enough in the various states (many of them red) to win the elections. What do conservatives and the base of white Americans adore about Mr. Trump? They love his appointing of conservative federal judges including the Supreme Court justice Neil Gorsuch and cannot wait until one of the more elderly justices like Ruth Ginsburg or Anthony Kennedy retire or pass away; the new tax law that gives benefits to most in the red states; the constantly chipping away of Obamacare; the massive rescinding of regulations across the board, including banking and the environment; the emphasis on restructuring trade deals with allies and foes alike; his support of law enforcement even in the most questionable circumstances against the minorities; his crackdown on illegal immigration as a whole; and most of all, for the stock market’s rise to unprecedented highs and the record low unemployment rate in the country.

And so for those who would celebrate the comeuppance of Mr. Trump and think that Americans will carry the image of children living in tent cities behind wire fences to the polls in November, think of this article as the dash of cold water in the face. Democrats and liberal minded people must in the vernacular “put the pedal to the metal” and get out the vote to win the midterms rather than relying on incidents like the child separation issue to carry the tide. They should also not become more confident if polling numbers reflect better circumstances for the Democrats as many Trump followers do not acknowledge their support in public, only in the ballot box.

This article © 2018 Alan Lee, Esq.

About The Author

Alan Lee, Esq. Alan Lee, Esq. The author is an exclusive practitioner of immigration law based in New York City with an AV preeminent rating in the Martindale-Hubbell Law Directory for 20+ years, registered in the Bar Register of Preeminent Lawyers, on the New York Super Lawyers list (2011-12, 2013-14, 2014-2015, 2015-2017), and recognized as a New York Area Top Rated Lawyer. He has written extensively on immigration over the past years for Interpreter Releases, Immigration Daily, and the ethnic newspapers, World Journal, Sing Tao, Epoch Times, Pakistan Calling, Muhasba and OCS; testified as an expert on immigration in civil court proceedings; and is a regular contributor to Martindale-Hubbell’s Ask-a-Lawyer program. His article, "The Bush Temporary Worker Proposal and Comparative Pending Legislation: an Analysis" was Interpreter Releases' cover display article at the American Immigration Lawyers Association annual conference in 2004; his 2004 case in the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, Firstland International v. INS, successfully challenged Legacy INS' policy of over 40 years of revoking approved immigrant visa petitions under a nebulous standard of proof, although its central holding that the government had to notify approved immigrant petition holders of the revocation prior to the their departure to the U. S. for the petition to be able to be revoked was short-lived as it was specifically targeted in the Intelligence Reform Act of 2004 (which in response changed the language of the revocation statute itself). Yet Firstland lives on as precedent that the government must comply with nondiscretionary duties established in law, and such failure is reviewable in federal courts. His 2015 case, Matter of Leacheng International, Inc., with the Administrative Appeals Office of USCIS (AAO) set nation-wide standards on the definition of “doing business” for multinational executives and managers to gain immigration benefits.

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