ILW.COM - the immigration portal Immigration Daily

Home Page


Immigration Daily

Archives

Processing times

Immigration forms

Discussion board

Resources

Blogs

Twitter feed

Immigrant Nation

Attorney2Attorney

CLE Workshops

Immigration books

Advertise on ILW

VIP Network

EB-5

移民日报

About ILW.COM

Connect to us

Make us Homepage

Questions/Comments


SUBSCRIBE

Immigration Daily


Chinese Immig. Daily




The leading
immigration law
publisher - over
50000 pages of
free information!
Copyright
1995-
ILW.COM,
American
Immigration LLC.

Results 1 to 5 of 5

Thread: HOUSE GOP afraid of upcoming election

  1. #1
    Right now, there is no doubt that Democrats have the advantage. I see a disenchantment with Republicans," said Representative Peter T. King, Republican of New York. "We are losing it, but Democrats aren't really winning it. We can turn it around by November."

    One senior Republican strategist, granted anonymity because his assessment would put him at odds with party leaders, said that Democrats were succeeding in their main goal: turning the race into a national referendum on Mr. Bush and the Republican Party. "Is the race being nationalized?" this strategist said. "Yes."

    Even Mr. Reynolds acknowledged the difficult environment. "I wish the president's numbers were 10 points higher," he said, adding that the bleak political environment has forced some of his more endangered incumbents, like Christopher Shays of Connecticut, to begin campaigning earlier.

    And Mr. Reynolds's concern was evident last week at a notably downbeat press briefing, where he spoke about the vigor of Democratic challenges in three Republicans districts once considered unassailable " in Illinois, Ohio and in his own district in upstate New York.

    "Chabot in Cincinnati will have a little more of a challenge than he usually has," he said, referring to Steve Chabot, an Ohio Republican who is a top target of Democrats.

    In the Senate, Democrats need to pick up six seats, and view seven states as in play, giving them slightly less maneuvering room than they have in the house.

    The shifts come as a series of polls bring ominous news for the party in power, going beyond a highly unfavorable view of Mr. Bush and Congressional Republicans, and concern about the direction the country is heading.

    Of particular concern for Republicans is that many of the party's most loyal supporters " who are crucial to the outcome in midterm elections, when turnout is typically low " seem discouraged and prone to saying home, according to several recent polls. At the same time, Democratic voters are described by officials in both parties as being as energized as they have been in recent memory.

    Mr. Kohut of the Pew Research Center said that 29 percent of Americans in his most recent poll said they would vote against their own member of Congress. That is the highest percentage since 1994, when Republicans swept Democrats out of power. The finding, Mr. Kohut suggested, should give pause to Republicans who argue that while most Americans have an unfavorable view of Congress, they approve the performance of their own member of Congress.

    In addition, Mr. Kohut said, 41 percent of Americans now say this Congress has achieved less than usual, and 34 percent say they view their Congressional ballots this year as an opportunity to vote against Mr. Bush. Both figures are record highs.

    Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst who tracks Congressional races, said his latest forecast, to be distributed next week, predicted that Democrats could make gains of 8 to 12 seats. That is an increase from a prediction last month that Democrats would gain 7 to 10 seats.

    "When we say Democrats are positioned to gain 8 to 12 seats, that certainly means the House is in play," Mr. Rothenberg said. "And those numbers are likely to go up. They are more likely to go up than they are to go down, that's for sure."

    Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who worked for President Bill Clinton in the 1994 elections, said polls he conducted in three districts where Democrats were thought to have modest hopes of winning found incumbents struggling with just 50 percent of the vote against unknown challengers. In a typical year, an incumbent at this point should have an overwhelming lead.

    The members in question were Mr. Chabot in Ohio, Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania and Mike Ferguson in New Jersey. "These races are competitive five or six months before the election," Mr. Greenberg said. Republican officials said they were confident of holding on to all three seats.

    Republicans have an additional problem as a price for being in power for so long, analysts said: many of the members who suddenly have fights on their hands are accustomed to coasting to victory and may not be prepared for what awaits them in the months ahead.

    Republicans say that even in this difficult environment, they see one big advantage: the party is focusing on the challenge early enough in the year to try to overcome it. Mr. King of New York said that stood in contrast to 1994, when the Democrats were caught off guard by the late surge led by Newt Gingrich for control of the House.

    "They're concerned " which is good," Mr. King said of fellow House Republicans. "People make the comparison to '94. I was here in '94. One of the main advantages we have over the Democrats is they never saw it coming " not at all. We see six months out that there is a real problem that we have to face."

    Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster, said this would give the party time to do what it did in 1996 to head off a fierce Democratic challenge.

    "Raise more money, disqualify the opponent early, and don't let them off the mat," he said. "That's what we'll try to do."

    To date, the battle over Congress has been defined by a conflict between two forces. On one hand, there is abundant polling data suggesting that voters are looking for a change after six years of Republican rule.

    The problem for Democrats, however, is that the process by which lawmakers draw Congressional boundary lines has had the effect of at least mathematically putting a vast majority of districts off-limits to Democrats searching to knock out incumbents, pending the kind of electoral wave Democrats have sought.

    As races across the country suddenly began popping up on lists of contests in play " Representative Richard W. Pombo of California, Charles H. Taylor of North Carolina, the seat held by Henry J. Hyde, the Illinois Republican who is retiring " some analysts are saying that that wave appears to be taking form

  2. #2
    Right now, there is no doubt that Democrats have the advantage. I see a disenchantment with Republicans," said Representative Peter T. King, Republican of New York. "We are losing it, but Democrats aren't really winning it. We can turn it around by November."

    One senior Republican strategist, granted anonymity because his assessment would put him at odds with party leaders, said that Democrats were succeeding in their main goal: turning the race into a national referendum on Mr. Bush and the Republican Party. "Is the race being nationalized?" this strategist said. "Yes."

    Even Mr. Reynolds acknowledged the difficult environment. "I wish the president's numbers were 10 points higher," he said, adding that the bleak political environment has forced some of his more endangered incumbents, like Christopher Shays of Connecticut, to begin campaigning earlier.

    And Mr. Reynolds's concern was evident last week at a notably downbeat press briefing, where he spoke about the vigor of Democratic challenges in three Republicans districts once considered unassailable " in Illinois, Ohio and in his own district in upstate New York.

    "Chabot in Cincinnati will have a little more of a challenge than he usually has," he said, referring to Steve Chabot, an Ohio Republican who is a top target of Democrats.

    In the Senate, Democrats need to pick up six seats, and view seven states as in play, giving them slightly less maneuvering room than they have in the house.

    The shifts come as a series of polls bring ominous news for the party in power, going beyond a highly unfavorable view of Mr. Bush and Congressional Republicans, and concern about the direction the country is heading.

    Of particular concern for Republicans is that many of the party's most loyal supporters " who are crucial to the outcome in midterm elections, when turnout is typically low " seem discouraged and prone to saying home, according to several recent polls. At the same time, Democratic voters are described by officials in both parties as being as energized as they have been in recent memory.

    Mr. Kohut of the Pew Research Center said that 29 percent of Americans in his most recent poll said they would vote against their own member of Congress. That is the highest percentage since 1994, when Republicans swept Democrats out of power. The finding, Mr. Kohut suggested, should give pause to Republicans who argue that while most Americans have an unfavorable view of Congress, they approve the performance of their own member of Congress.

    In addition, Mr. Kohut said, 41 percent of Americans now say this Congress has achieved less than usual, and 34 percent say they view their Congressional ballots this year as an opportunity to vote against Mr. Bush. Both figures are record highs.

    Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst who tracks Congressional races, said his latest forecast, to be distributed next week, predicted that Democrats could make gains of 8 to 12 seats. That is an increase from a prediction last month that Democrats would gain 7 to 10 seats.

    "When we say Democrats are positioned to gain 8 to 12 seats, that certainly means the House is in play," Mr. Rothenberg said. "And those numbers are likely to go up. They are more likely to go up than they are to go down, that's for sure."

    Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster who worked for President Bill Clinton in the 1994 elections, said polls he conducted in three districts where Democrats were thought to have modest hopes of winning found incumbents struggling with just 50 percent of the vote against unknown challengers. In a typical year, an incumbent at this point should have an overwhelming lead.

    The members in question were Mr. Chabot in Ohio, Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania and Mike Ferguson in New Jersey. "These races are competitive five or six months before the election," Mr. Greenberg said. Republican officials said they were confident of holding on to all three seats.

    Republicans have an additional problem as a price for being in power for so long, analysts said: many of the members who suddenly have fights on their hands are accustomed to coasting to victory and may not be prepared for what awaits them in the months ahead.

    Republicans say that even in this difficult environment, they see one big advantage: the party is focusing on the challenge early enough in the year to try to overcome it. Mr. King of New York said that stood in contrast to 1994, when the Democrats were caught off guard by the late surge led by Newt Gingrich for control of the House.

    "They're concerned " which is good," Mr. King said of fellow House Republicans. "People make the comparison to '94. I was here in '94. One of the main advantages we have over the Democrats is they never saw it coming " not at all. We see six months out that there is a real problem that we have to face."

    Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster, said this would give the party time to do what it did in 1996 to head off a fierce Democratic challenge.

    "Raise more money, disqualify the opponent early, and don't let them off the mat," he said. "That's what we'll try to do."

    To date, the battle over Congress has been defined by a conflict between two forces. On one hand, there is abundant polling data suggesting that voters are looking for a change after six years of Republican rule.

    The problem for Democrats, however, is that the process by which lawmakers draw Congressional boundary lines has had the effect of at least mathematically putting a vast majority of districts off-limits to Democrats searching to knock out incumbents, pending the kind of electoral wave Democrats have sought.

    As races across the country suddenly began popping up on lists of contests in play " Representative Richard W. Pombo of California, Charles H. Taylor of North Carolina, the seat held by Henry J. Hyde, the Illinois Republican who is retiring " some analysts are saying that that wave appears to be taking form

  3. #3
    For all the BIG noise that media makes, neither Republicans risk loosing the control of House (or Senate), nor Democrats are in any position to significantly increase their numbers in Congress in coming November elections.
    Perhaps, the threat of loosing Congress will turn out even more Republican voters - thus guaranteeing that they retain both Houses.


    However, in the long run, Republicans would do better if adopted Reagan's approach in domestic policies rather than tilting it too much to the right.
    But this will be a big challenge for Republicans, because when one party has all the power it may be tempted to overdo.


    Regards,
    IE

  4. #4
    The democrats biggest liability and the Republicans best assets are Harry Reid and Barbara Boxer.

  5. #5
    No, Democrats biggest liability is the late sixties and seventies. And eighties.

Similar Threads

  1. House GOP to push Enforcement Only
    By Antifascist1 in forum Immigration Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 07-13-2006, 08:16 AM
  2. Replies: 2
    Last Post: 06-23-2006, 01:49 PM
  3. Immigration Deal at Risk as House GOP Looks to Voters.
    By moemoe in forum Immigration Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 05-29-2006, 07:30 AM
  4. Back Bush, Rove tells House GOP
    By jean2005 in forum Immigration Discussion
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 05-20-2006, 12:44 PM
  5. Immigrant Bill Fallout May Hurt House GOP
    By jean2005 in forum Immigration Discussion
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 04-12-2006, 08:43 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Put Free Immigration Law Headlines On Your Website

Immigration Daily: the news source for legal professionals. Free! Join 35000+ readers Enter your email address here: