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  • Election to watch!

    LOS ANGELES TIMES: Key Race Is Seen as a Test of GOP's Vulnerability

    By Tony Perry Times Staff Writer May 30, 2006 SAN MARCOS, Calif.

    "” As voters in the 50th Congressional District look to replace incarcerated Randy "Duke" Cunningham, the candidates are talking about sending messages. Brian Bilbray, a former GOP congressman attempting a comeback, says a vote for him is a message to the Iraqi insurgents that the U.S. will not cut and run, and a message to illegal immigrants not to expect quickie citizenship.
    But Democratic candidate Francine Busby says voters should send a different message: A change is needed in Washington because of the quagmire in Iraq and the "culture of corruption" under Republicans and the Bush administration.

    Normally, this district is so Republican that Democratic strategist Donna Brazile says it's not just red, but "ruby red." However, with Bush's approval ratings severely hobbled by Iraq and other issues and Cunningham in prison for the biggest corruption case in congressional history, the GOP is running concerned, if not downright scared.

    A loss here, or even a close victory, could be seen as a sign that the GOP hold on Washington is slipping and that November could see wholesale change. "This is a biggie," said Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego's Mesa College. "Everyone is going to be reading the tea leaves as a predictor of November." The party is airing numerous commercials blasting Busby, a Cardiff school board member.

    Last week, Vice President **** Cheney stumped and, what's more important, raised money for Bilbray; Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is on his way. "It's the one-two punch: Cheney for the right wing, McCain for the moderates," Luna said. Busby, 55, ran against Cunningham in 2004 and was defeated easily. Even before he was snared in scandal over bribery and tax evasion, she had declared her plan to seek a rematch. Bilbray, also 55, went to Congress in 1994 "” as part of the Newt Gingrich-led Contract With America movement "” and then lost his reelection campaign in 2000 in a district south of here.


    Defeat turned him into a Washington-based lobbyist. The two emerged from an April 11 special election as their party nominees to fill the final seven months of what would have been Cunningham's eighth term. Regardless of the June 6 winner, there will be a rematch in November for a full two-year term. That's because a separate part of the June 6 ballot also serves as a party primary for the November general
    29
    election.

    Busby will take her party's nod in a walk; Bilbray is expected to do the same. Many of the GOP hopefuls who were his opponents in the April 11 election are still listed as candidates in the primary, but only one is still campaigning: Bill Hauf, a wealthy real estate developer.

    Party elders talked millionaire investor Eric Roach, who placed second to Bilbray, into dropping his campaign. Because of the Republican party's national problems, the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report has listed the 50th as "a tossup, tilting Republican," a far cry from the usual slam-dunk for the GOP. There will be hundreds of congressional primaries June 6, but only one special election for an open seat, Rothenberg analyst Nathan Gonza*** said.

    "The 50th is a symbolic race," said Gonza***. "If the Republicans lose, the story nationwide will be: 'Republicans are in even more trouble than we thought.' " Busby stands to profit from not just the Cunningham scandal but also from every problem associated with the Bush administration, Gonza*** said.

    "On her own resume, she would not be a particularly strong candidate," he said. "But in this situation, she definitely has made it a competitive race." As a test of political philosophies, the Busby-Bilbray match gives us a self-described "moderate to liberal" versus a "mainstream conservative." Asked to name their political role models, she listed Sens. Dianne Feinstein, John McCain and Barack Obama; he picked Teddy Roosevelt, Rep. David Dreier and Pete Wilson.

    For Busby, the hot-button issue is the seeming explosion of corruption investigations in Washington, along with the bribery and tax-evasion convictions that sent Cunningham to prison for eight years. In her opening remarks at a debate last week, she announced that ABC News had just reported that House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois) was being investigated for corruption "” a report quickly denied by Hastert and the Justice Department. For Bilbray, the red-meat issue is illegal immigration.

    It has worked for him in the past; he defeated a Democratic incumbent in 1994, in part, by being an enthusiastic supporter of anti-illegal immigration Proposition 187. "You'll get to decide in the next six months whether your grandchildren will be learning Spanish because they want to or because they have to," Bilbray said. In a district that covers part of northern San Diego and several suburbs, Republicans have a 44% to 30% registration edge over Democrats, with 22% independents.

    But in the April 11 election a higher percentage of Democrats voted than Republicans "” defying the truism that GOP voters turn out more dependably. The results of the June 6 election could hang on whether that turnabout is repeated or whether the Republican effort to boost turnout through mailings and television commercials is successful.

    Bilbray says that even knowing what is known today, he would have voted to invade Iraq. In her public
    30
    comments, Busby has consistently opposed the invasion. He is for oil drilling in Alaska; she opposes it.

    He supports the National Security Agency's telephone-record mining; she opposes it. He thinks high schools and colleges that ban military recruiters should lose federal funding; she doesn't. He would threaten Iran with war if it doesn't drop its nuclear ambitions; she's uncomfortable with the United States determining which nations can have nuclear weapons. "I don't seriously think we're in a position where we can talk about starting another war," she said.

    On some issues they agree: favoring stem-cell research and abortion rights and coming out against pressuring the military to give up the Miramar Marine Corps Air Station so a civilian airport can be built there. After a lifetime in politics "” including stints on the Imperial Beach City Council and San Diego County Board of Supervisors "” Bilbray is a polished campaigner, slinging facts and figures and even showing a self-deprecating wit. Busby can seem tentative and unsure. She is a lecturer in the women's studies department at Cal State San Marcos, the scene of last week's debate. Bilbray makes a joke about his lack of academic credentials. "I actually wanted to be a history professor but I couldn't pull the academics," he told the audience. "So I went to Congress instead."
    31

  • #2
    LOS ANGELES TIMES: Key Race Is Seen as a Test of GOP's Vulnerability

    By Tony Perry Times Staff Writer May 30, 2006 SAN MARCOS, Calif.

    "” As voters in the 50th Congressional District look to replace incarcerated Randy "Duke" Cunningham, the candidates are talking about sending messages. Brian Bilbray, a former GOP congressman attempting a comeback, says a vote for him is a message to the Iraqi insurgents that the U.S. will not cut and run, and a message to illegal immigrants not to expect quickie citizenship.
    But Democratic candidate Francine Busby says voters should send a different message: A change is needed in Washington because of the quagmire in Iraq and the "culture of corruption" under Republicans and the Bush administration.

    Normally, this district is so Republican that Democratic strategist Donna Brazile says it's not just red, but "ruby red." However, with Bush's approval ratings severely hobbled by Iraq and other issues and Cunningham in prison for the biggest corruption case in congressional history, the GOP is running concerned, if not downright scared.

    A loss here, or even a close victory, could be seen as a sign that the GOP hold on Washington is slipping and that November could see wholesale change. "This is a biggie," said Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego's Mesa College. "Everyone is going to be reading the tea leaves as a predictor of November." The party is airing numerous commercials blasting Busby, a Cardiff school board member.

    Last week, Vice President **** Cheney stumped and, what's more important, raised money for Bilbray; Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is on his way. "It's the one-two punch: Cheney for the right wing, McCain for the moderates," Luna said. Busby, 55, ran against Cunningham in 2004 and was defeated easily. Even before he was snared in scandal over bribery and tax evasion, she had declared her plan to seek a rematch. Bilbray, also 55, went to Congress in 1994 "” as part of the Newt Gingrich-led Contract With America movement "” and then lost his reelection campaign in 2000 in a district south of here.


    Defeat turned him into a Washington-based lobbyist. The two emerged from an April 11 special election as their party nominees to fill the final seven months of what would have been Cunningham's eighth term. Regardless of the June 6 winner, there will be a rematch in November for a full two-year term. That's because a separate part of the June 6 ballot also serves as a party primary for the November general
    29
    election.

    Busby will take her party's nod in a walk; Bilbray is expected to do the same. Many of the GOP hopefuls who were his opponents in the April 11 election are still listed as candidates in the primary, but only one is still campaigning: Bill Hauf, a wealthy real estate developer.

    Party elders talked millionaire investor Eric Roach, who placed second to Bilbray, into dropping his campaign. Because of the Republican party's national problems, the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report has listed the 50th as "a tossup, tilting Republican," a far cry from the usual slam-dunk for the GOP. There will be hundreds of congressional primaries June 6, but only one special election for an open seat, Rothenberg analyst Nathan Gonza*** said.

    "The 50th is a symbolic race," said Gonza***. "If the Republicans lose, the story nationwide will be: 'Republicans are in even more trouble than we thought.' " Busby stands to profit from not just the Cunningham scandal but also from every problem associated with the Bush administration, Gonza*** said.

    "On her own resume, she would not be a particularly strong candidate," he said. "But in this situation, she definitely has made it a competitive race." As a test of political philosophies, the Busby-Bilbray match gives us a self-described "moderate to liberal" versus a "mainstream conservative." Asked to name their political role models, she listed Sens. Dianne Feinstein, John McCain and Barack Obama; he picked Teddy Roosevelt, Rep. David Dreier and Pete Wilson.

    For Busby, the hot-button issue is the seeming explosion of corruption investigations in Washington, along with the bribery and tax-evasion convictions that sent Cunningham to prison for eight years. In her opening remarks at a debate last week, she announced that ABC News had just reported that House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois) was being investigated for corruption "” a report quickly denied by Hastert and the Justice Department. For Bilbray, the red-meat issue is illegal immigration.

    It has worked for him in the past; he defeated a Democratic incumbent in 1994, in part, by being an enthusiastic supporter of anti-illegal immigration Proposition 187. "You'll get to decide in the next six months whether your grandchildren will be learning Spanish because they want to or because they have to," Bilbray said. In a district that covers part of northern San Diego and several suburbs, Republicans have a 44% to 30% registration edge over Democrats, with 22% independents.

    But in the April 11 election a higher percentage of Democrats voted than Republicans "” defying the truism that GOP voters turn out more dependably. The results of the June 6 election could hang on whether that turnabout is repeated or whether the Republican effort to boost turnout through mailings and television commercials is successful.

    Bilbray says that even knowing what is known today, he would have voted to invade Iraq. In her public
    30
    comments, Busby has consistently opposed the invasion. He is for oil drilling in Alaska; she opposes it.

    He supports the National Security Agency's telephone-record mining; she opposes it. He thinks high schools and colleges that ban military recruiters should lose federal funding; she doesn't. He would threaten Iran with war if it doesn't drop its nuclear ambitions; she's uncomfortable with the United States determining which nations can have nuclear weapons. "I don't seriously think we're in a position where we can talk about starting another war," she said.

    On some issues they agree: favoring stem-cell research and abortion rights and coming out against pressuring the military to give up the Miramar Marine Corps Air Station so a civilian airport can be built there. After a lifetime in politics "” including stints on the Imperial Beach City Council and San Diego County Board of Supervisors "” Bilbray is a polished campaigner, slinging facts and figures and even showing a self-deprecating wit. Busby can seem tentative and unsure. She is a lecturer in the women's studies department at Cal State San Marcos, the scene of last week's debate. Bilbray makes a joke about his lack of academic credentials. "I actually wanted to be a history professor but I couldn't pull the academics," he told the audience. "So I went to Congress instead."
    31

    Comment


    • #3
      This bilbray-bubsy election is one that should be watched carefully because he might be a prelude on whether the democrats will regian the house in 2006.

      Now, whats so important about this match up is bilbray, the republican candidate, is running on a "get tought on illgelas" mandate whyle bubsy is running on "lets pull out of iraq".

      It is also stated that bubsy does not have to win to make the democratic expers certain that they will win back the house, but all she will have to do is make it very close,which every is predicting will be a nail biter.

      The reason for that is because the district is overwhelming a republican area.And if you read the article, it even suggested that it is so red that people says its an ultra red district, which should kill any chances of a democrats like bubsy to even make it cloe.


      now the election is very soon which is good news for me because i want to see how things turns out, an if bubsy looses by a nail biter, then things could look good for democrats but if bubsy wins, then it is a guaranty that the american public will definatly elect democrats in the house.

      ---

      NOW, IF BUBSY WINS THIS, THEN DEMOCRATS SHOULD NOT GO ALONG WITH ANY IMMIGRATION BILL THAT DOES NOT GUARANTEE A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP FOR SOME OF THE UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS SINCE THEY WOULD TAKE OVER THE HOUSE IN NOVEMBER AND WONT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT NEGOTIATING WITH SENSENBRENNER.

      Comment


      • #4
        Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9139

        Geography Surveyed: CA 50th CD
        Data Collected: 05/07/2006 - 05/09/2006
        Release Date: 05/10/2006 10:50 AM ET
        Sponsoring News Organization: KGTV-TV San Diego

        Bilbray 45%, Busby 45%: In a special election held today, 5/10/06, in California's 50th Congressional District, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Francine Busby tie, each with 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 442 likely voters conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. 9% would vote for some other candidate. Bilbray gets 82% of Republican votes. Busby gets 92% of Democrat votes. Among Independents, Busby leads Bilbray 54% to 19%. Bilbray leads among male voters by 5 points. Busby leads among female voters by 5 points. The 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005. Busby won the Special Primary on 4/11/06 with 44% of the vote. Bilbray finished second with 15%, 1 point ahead of Republican Eric Roach. 80% of Roach's voters now support Bilbray. Among likely voters who did not vote in the Special Primary, Bilbray leads Busby by 19 points. 27 days remain until the 6/6/06 Primary.

        Comment


        • #5
          While you're at it--check out Chris Cannon's run in Utah. Cannon, the Republican incumbent and Bush's point man on "immigration reform", lost the backing of his State Republican Party (headed by his brother) and the Republican primary.

          Comment


          • #6
            Chris cannon might lose to a democrats, which is even greater since we all know that democrats votes for comprehensive immigration, eventhought cannon back bush approach....

            also, the reason why cannon might not get the necessary support may be because he's a republican...

            remember,the american public number one reason why they might vote democrat in november is because they want their troops back home and any failure to pass an immigration bill that fix the border, will fall on republicans back since they controll both houses.

            Comment


            • #7
              Jean--He lost the primary to ANOTHER Republican who is hardline against amnesty. Learn a little about our political system before you start spouting off.

              Comment


              • #8
                isnt chris cannon still a member of the house?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Spoke too soon. The primary's next month, but he doesn't have the Republican Committee's backing for it. All members of the House are up for re-election this fall. The primary elections (usually by party) are used to determine which candidate each party will run as its candidate in the fall. One would expect the incumbent, such as Cannon, to have an advantage. In this case, his record apparently hurt him. He may lose his party's primary next month to another candidate who opposes amnesty, and who will receive party backing for the fall election. Cannon still has his office until the fall elections, and could still run for re-election in the fall even if he loses the primary--just not as the Republican-backed candidate.

                  From the WSJ: (At the State Republican Covention)
                  Mr. Cannon was outpolled, 52% to 48%, by political newcomer John Jacob. Because no one won the necessary 60% of the convention vote to avoid a primary, the two will go head to head at the ballot box June 27.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Not getting his party backing doesnt mean he cant win..also, im kind of surprise that he did not get his state party backing since he support bush...i would guest that bush will make sure he gets the money to run since he supports them...cannon should not worry about anti mexican party members and depend on bush to hand him the cash...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      With dubya's approval at 30% and the plethora of scandals dodging the administration, is it really an advantage to be associated with him?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        this is why we will win back the house, then we will pass full court amnesty for every mexicans and OTM..we will call it the "no illegal migrants left behind".

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Real Life is somewhat different than typical Mexican songs played on Sinco De Mayo

                          House, as I noted before, stands good chance of adding this year more ultra-conservatives at the cost of moderate-republicans and democrats.

                          How election process works is simple: people who are agitated and angered the most also turn out in much higher proportions during election times.

                          Now, as it is apparent to me, ultra-conservatives are really angry and upset with Bush administration when it comes to immigration issues, while moderate Republicans and most Democrats are either praising him or in the worst case have little to complain about.

                          Therefore, there is a likelyhood of more "tancredoes" being elected this year at the cost of "specters" and "kolbs", while Senate Bill gets stalled in conference...

                          Once that happens, how long do you think it will take for "Comprehensive Immigrant Destruction Act" to pass ( It may as well be called "No Immigrant Behind Left Virgin Act").

                          Once THAT happens, just watch how d u m b founded the todays all to vocal anti-immigrant advocates will find themselves.

                          DOJ and Administration will have to be struggling to enforce the new "draconian" laws, separating and deporting USC and LPR spouses and children; chasing busboys and nannies on the streets - all the while not being able to concentrate scarce resourses to get the criminals and those who pose real threat to society.

                          Next, with relatively little resourses available and under pressure to manage the budget with less spending, only hundreds of thousands will actually be caught, sanctioned and deported.
                          It won't take long for 12-20 million illegals to realize that there are less than 1 out of 10 chances to be actually deported, no matter how super-draconian laws are written on paper.
                          So, vast majority will keep staying here illegally.

                          This will last for a while but not for too long: majority of Americans, once media exposes disastrous consequences of "too tancerdious laws" , will rise in defense of immigrants, and these will be no Mexicans or Latinos waving their native flags this time, but large numbers of Americans of white and other backgrounds protesting against destructive anti-immigrant measures.

                          Once this happens - the ground will change and the pressure will build for absolutely full amnesty.

                          As I said earlier, it's impossible to predict when or how long the whole process will take, but I won't be surprised if it takes 7-8 or even more years.

                          The only thing I know is:

                          **** on immigrants today - and you will make inevitable the absolute full amnesty tomorrow.


                          Regards,

                          IE

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I really hate the fact that sensenbrenner came out swinging, but again, why is he even going into the house senate hearing if he hates everything in the senate bill..

                            The only thing i can think of is, he really feels like he could bully them into doing enforcment first and leave out everything else?...I just hope an opposite strong voice raises in the house..Hastert is our best hope or maybe boehner but i doubt that..If frist can make the turn around from radical anti immigrants to moderate mccain-like republican, then i think anyone could do that..we really need hastert to say something and show us where he stands on this issue, he's the only person that could really push this agenda forward.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              My guess AF/IE (Internet Explorer?)
                              loves sci-fi books/movies, am I right? Or he's a screenwriter or a bookwriter with huge imagination...
                              He does paint dreary scenarios for the future for sure...

                              Wrong guess

                              IE = ImmortalE

                              As to my love for Sci-Fi books, I did read a lot of those around the age of 10-11 and it did expand my imagination to noticeable degree, but ever since I was 12-13 my interests progressed forward and Sci-Fi was left far behind.
                              Apparently the same can't be said about "The Camp of The Saints" fans

                              Comment



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