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  • Zogby International Poll

    One of the most reputable and accurate polls in the world has released the following information:

    Americans oppose amnesty

    "A majority of Americans said they oppose amnesty for undocumented workers from other nations who are already residing in this nation, the survey shows. While 52% said there should be no amnesty, 32% said they would favor amnesty for such people."

    Also:

    "Asked whether the protests have made likely voters more or less sympathetic towards undocumented workers, 32% said they are now more sympathetic to their plight, while 61% said they are less likely to be sympathetic as a result of the protests."


    But don't take my word for it. Read it for yourself and keep in mind that this isn't some cheap ABC or Times poll. This is a legit poll. It also provideds loads of other interesting information on immigration. Enjoy.

    http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1100

  • #2
    One of the most reputable and accurate polls in the world has released the following information:

    Americans oppose amnesty

    "A majority of Americans said they oppose amnesty for undocumented workers from other nations who are already residing in this nation, the survey shows. While 52% said there should be no amnesty, 32% said they would favor amnesty for such people."

    Also:

    "Asked whether the protests have made likely voters more or less sympathetic towards undocumented workers, 32% said they are now more sympathetic to their plight, while 61% said they are less likely to be sympathetic as a result of the protests."


    But don't take my word for it. Read it for yourself and keep in mind that this isn't some cheap ABC or Times poll. This is a legit poll. It also provideds loads of other interesting information on immigration. Enjoy.

    http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1100

    Comment


    • #3
      First problem is how do we define "amnesty?" The second problem is how do we define illegal immigrant? To be more specific, will voters be more sympathetic to someone who came here legally first and then overstayed their visa. Or how about someone who came here under false pretenses being legal when in reality they were not. These two examples only forsahdow the complex decision making process of who, what, where, when, how, and to what extent we define amnesty and who should be exempt from deportation. No poll can accomplish these tasks although I respect this poll and Pew international.
      "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." John Adams on Defense of the boston Massacre

      Comment


      • #4
        This is the same Zogby that messed up in its early projection during Bush vs Kerry 2004 showdown isn't it?

        Comment


        • #5
          You have a point, but Zogby has a reputation of being one of the most accurate. Here is a link to the notorious Time/SRBI poll that is often referred to as showing that Americans support "earned amnesty". Note that it only asks 1004 adults and that 50% of those polled also supported "Deporting all illegal immigrants back to their home countries" (Question #11).

          http://srbi.com/TimePoll_Final_Report-2006-03-31.pdf

          Comment


          • #6
            marmaduk,

            I'm not sure. I'm not familiar with that poll or situation. Can you please post a link to some supporting material?

            Comment


            • #7
              http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics....20041209a.html

              Suffice to say, his voting day prediction is off by quite a wide margin.

              Comment


              • #8
                Might also be of interest to note that "Zogby" is an Arab.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Polls are "mass opinion".
                  Few things on planet earth are as temporary and fragile as "public opinions".
                  They change constantly, perhaps even few times a day.

                  But aside from what you define as "public opinion", there is also "collective unconcsious" and the "tide", the "wave"..

                  Everything goes in direction as I predicted dozens of times before.

                  Amnesty is not too far away, but it will take hundreds of thousands if not a million "scapegoats" (aka "deported illegal aliens") to change the tide and bring about the enactment of full amnesty legislation.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    marmaduk,

                    Thanks for the link. However, there is a big difference between predictions and polls based on hard data. The former is basically an educated guess while a poll requires actually soliciting answers to questions from participants. If you note, the Zogby poll on immigration I've referenced wasn't making predictions, but was relaying responses from Americans.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Yes, but the ever going question with pollster is whether they're able to correctly depict the public preferences from the samples they had. Zogby 2004 prediction was based on hard data as well (exit polling). Which turned out incorrect in reflecting the general population sentiment.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Imagine for a split second that you are supra-multi-billionaire, with many billions of dollars to spare.
                        Now, imagine opening a satellite network or buying an hour of prime-airtime on TV every single night.
                        Have someone like Lou Dobbs (and dozens more like him + 100's of radio hosts nationwide) hysterically reporting on apocaliptical consequences of particular civil infraction (say, speeding in traffic).
                        Then, years later, call few hundred people randomly (must be those who never drive a car) and ask: what do they think of granting amnesty (not writing tickets) to drivers who speed in rush hours 5-10 miles above the limit?
                        No need to be a genius to guess the responce.

                        But what public thinks now/today does not nesessarily reflect what it will think tomorrow/then.

                        Most importantly: what people REALLY think is largely a part of their subconscious (they never admit it to even themselves).
                        And it's the subconscious of people that is to be analyzed if yo uwant to have better grasp of present and future.

                        Regards,
                        IE

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I understand that marmaduk, but there is a difference. Trying to predict an outcome of an election based on exit polling data is still making an educated guess based on that data. It's a lot different than just presenting the results.

                          In the immigration poll Zogby simply asked 7,967 people whether they supported amnesty and 52% of them said no. That's what he reported. If we put the immigration poll into the same context as the election scenario, Zogby would be trying to predict what will happen with immigration reform based on his sample data which would simply be guessing.

                          I know it's just a small sample of the population, but it is larger sample than the 1000 person polls being mentioned by others.

                          Either way, I don't think any poll can accurately guage the nations opinion on immigration. That's the point I'm trying to make to troll2005.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            To tell youn the truth, ones would expect more people to oppose amnesty, so the 52% is very low, very low...i would expect 80% of them would say no.

                            Now you have 5 polls that are fresh out of the can which suggest that 60 + % of the american people saying they wants a bill that does both both...The american people understand that bush will only sign and enact a bill that does both, they understand that enforcement-only has no chance..no chance in the senate, and no chance in the white house.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The sample size isn't really the issue. The main issue is how it's drawn, and whether it's representative of the population it purports to measure. For some populations and for some questions, such as illegal aliens or Muslims, you may have to oversample in order to make sure you have enough responses to compare their opinions with the population in general. And of course, the method by which the survey was conducted makes a difference as well. A lot of people today screen calls, and don't answer polls, so the responses to phone interviews may well not be typical of the population. As always, look at the wording of the questions and who the company backing the poll is--it's very easy to write a poll that skews responses.

                              Comment



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