Here's an update on the Electoral College:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...toral_college_updateElection 2008: Electoral College Update
Electoral College: Democrats 200 Republicans 189 Leaners 111 Toss-Up 38
Friday, May 23, 2008
Today, Rasmussen Reports released new polling data showing Barack Obama opening a modest lead in Colorado and John McCain holding a double-digit lead in Florida. However, as with all recent state polling, these results do nothing to change the Electoral College projections of, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. On Friday, Democrats continue to lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. States with 111 Votes are “leaners,†and states with 38 Votes are Toss-Ups.
When “leaners†are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).
Those numbers have remained stable for a long time while the political nation has focused on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. However, significant shifts are likely in the near future, partly due to an increased focus on the general election and partly due to adjustments currently being made by Rasmussen Reports.
Currently, the polling data used for each state is based upon an average of the results for Barack Obama vs. John McCain and Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain. Within the next two weeks, we will adjust that practice and base the projections solely on the polling data featuring Barack Obama vs. John McCain. As a practical matter, this will shift some states (i.e.--Colorado) more in the Democratic direction while others (i.e.—Florida) will shift somewhat in the GOP direction.
Additionally, Rasmussen Reports will make minor adjustments to other aspects of the formula. We will be using an updated method for measuring average poll results on each state race and will also begin factoring in the national Obama-McCain numbers when calculating the impact of the state’s voting history. All changes will be released at the same time to present the most up-to-the-minute assessment of the Electoral College prospects for Obama and McCain.
A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House. Leaners are states that narrowly lean to one party or the other at this time but remain competitive. See a summary of recent polls and Rasmussen Market expectations for key states in the Electoral College showdown.
Twelve states with 149 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator will be updated daily until Election Day. More information below table.
Balance of Power Calculator - Electoral College
Safe Republican 168
Likely Republican 21
Leans Republican 51
Toss-Up 38
Leans Democratic 60
Likely Democratic 43
Safe Democratic 157
This Balance of Power Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends. The weight given to each variable will vary over time (i.e.—polls will be counted more heavily in October than today, a state’s history will be counted more heavily today than in October).
Until the Democratic nominee is determined, the polling data used for each state will be based upon an average of the results for Barack Obama vs. John McCain and Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain.
Status changes will be noted as they occur with an explanation of what factors brought about the change.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently projects 157 Electoral Votes as “Safely Democratic,†43 Electoral Votes as “Likely Democratic†and 60 Electoral Votes as “Leans Democratic.â€
On the other side of the aisle, 168 Electoral Votes are projected as “Safely Republican,†21 are projected as “Likely Republican†and 51 are projected as “Leans Republican".
Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Likely Democratic: Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), and Washington (11).
Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).
Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).
Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (