Immigration Daily

Comment: DREAM has momentum, EB5 not moving

A “clean” DREAM bill, coupled with border provisions, appears to have significant political momentum, following Mr. Trump’s decision to phase out DACA, announced earlier this month. A House vote on a discharge petition on DREAM may be forced as early as next week, despite opposition from leaders of both political parties – at this writing it is not clear that such a vote would fail on the House floor. Even if it does fail, but comes within a couple of dozen votes of passing – it would embolden another try, and thus force leaders of both parties to bend to political realities, and fast-track action on DREAM. Such fast-track action will NOT be regular order, since discussion on immigration benefits is no longer possible with some Republican members of the House Immigration sub-committee and House Judiciary committee, thus rendering these bodies ineffective in shepherding immigration bills. The political blow-back to “enforcement-only” appears to have now arrived.

In the Senate, a filibuster-proof majority for DREAM plus border provisions likely exists, and even a failed House vote on the discharge petition may galvanize action in the Senate. As the DREAM saga unfolds, it is even possible that Mr. Trump might get some money for his wall (5 miles of wall, anyone?), so that he can claim a “win”. As soon as a DREAM+border bill is on the move, whether in the next couple of weeks or in the next couple of months, every manner of immigration amendment will be thrown at it, being germane under Congressional rules for floor action, and a few of these amendments will carry, so the final measure that lands on Mr. Trump’s desk will be a little more than DREAM+border.

One of the amendments that has already come into play is an EB5 amendment – largely mirroring the Cornyn/Grassley language from earlier this year. This amendment is likely to fail since the status quo is beneficial to urban EB5 interests who have proved (i) that they have sufficient lobbying muscle to block change to EB5 and (ii) that they have a sophisticated lobbying strategy to counter rural interests that dominate in the Senate in such a manner that it does not become apparent that what is being implemented is in fact a pro-status-quo ...