Comment: Why CIR Is Now Certain

What is Comprehensive Immigration Reform? Many people think of CIR as one giant immigration bill which will solve all the problems with our crucially needed yet terribly broken immigration system. As immigration law publishers, we have been following all significant attempts towards and successful achievements towards CIR for over two decades. The general lesson is that CIR will happen piecemeal not in one fell swoop. For example, the last significant revision to the immigration statutes happened in stages: IRCA in 1986 followed by IMMACT in 1990.

We expect CIR to happen in the 2021 to 2025 time frame. Here are some indications for that::

  1. DACA is likely to be struck down by the Supreme Court. Mr. Trump has said that he wants to help the Dreamers; trading funding for the Wall for immigration benefits for Dreamers is a logical deal that the President and others have broached in the past
  2. The fact that the House passed the Farm Workers Modernization Act in a bipartisan December vote with 30+ Repulblican yeas shows that significant bipartisan immigration legislation is possible even in today's polarized political climate (that bill would hand out one million green cards for undocumented farm workers)
  3. There is a deeper clash between two factions within the Republican Party between the "Deport them All" crowd and those for employment immigration needed by the American economy, this clash has now become increasingly sharp, since it is apparent that the "Deport them All" crowd wants not only to "Deport them All", but also to permanently seal American borders to all future immigration, dooming the American econonmy to stagnation and decline

Immigration is "THE" major political issue of contention between the political supporters and opponents of President Trump. This issue has reached a boiling point, and whenever a political problem has reached a boiling point, the solution is near. On the general outlines of the solution, there is no disagreement between the parties. What remains to be resolved is political differences, not policy differences.

Given that we have a two party system, the US electorate makes sure that neither of the parties feels too comfortable--and it is only a matter of time when power shifts from one to the other. That is why we think 2021-2015 is a reasonable timeframe, because it spans the entire term of a President elected in 2020, and the beginning of the term of the President elected in 2024, as also major redistricting as a result of the 2020 census becoming effective in the 2022 election.

Stay tuned to Immigration Daily for the latest immigration news and analysis.

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