Comment: EB5 Reg Battle

There are two factions in the Trump administration that are battling it out on the finalization of the new EB5 Regulation.

1) Steven Miller Faction - "The Quantity Faction" - This faction is in full operational control of USCIS/DHS. The acting director of USCIS, Ken Cuccinelli, comes from this faction, and so do the heads of CBP and ICE. In addition, several members within two/three/four levels of officials under these heads also come from this faction. Many of these people have connections with anti-immigration organizations such as CIS, FAIR and NumbersUSA. There are multiple daily calls made from Steven Miller and his people in the White House to these officials in the immigration agencies. This faction is generally anti-immigration and wants to reduce all immigration numbers as much as possible.

2) Jared Kushner Faction - "The Quality Faction" - Jared Kushner is occupied mostly with large issues such as Criminal Justice, Middle East Peace, Opiod Crisis, but does find time occasionally to push large scale immigration initiatives. President Trump has identified immigration as a centerpiece of his re-election campaign and is eager to show that he has kept the promises he made on immigration during the last election. This week, Kushner and his faction presented a immigration overhaul plan within the White House which keeps the total immigration numbers unchanged but makes immigration "merit-based"--increasing the "quality" of immigrants.

These two factions are at war with each other on many immigration issues--for instance, the "The Quantity Faction" opposes the proposed immigration plan because it wants a reduction in the total number of immigrants--not just the increase in quality. On EB5 regulation, Mr. Kushner's companies are developers who have used EB5 in the past and his friends are telling Mr. Kushner that this regulation is a bad idea and will hurt developers. It appears that there were deliberations in the White House in the last 7 days and a call went out from someone working at the direction of Mr. Kushner to USCIS requesting them to delay the regulation.

There have been rumors that the rule has been killed--but despite these rumors, the regulation has not been killed as of this writing. In sworn testimony to Congress yesterday under penalty of perjury, Michael Valverde, the Deputy Associate Director of Field Operations of USCIS, stated that the regulation will be published "relatively soon" and upon being asked specifically "so months?" he said it was "less than months, sir." A career USCIS official would not perjure himself and risk his job and pension, hence our conclusion that the regulation is very much alive. See the video of the hearing here (the statement is at 1:13:44 in the video for a duration of 1:20 minutes).

An Op-Ed last weekend in the New York Observer, a newspaper owned by a relative of Mr. Kushner, "Real Estate Developers’ Plea to Trump: Don’t Roll Out New EB-5 Regulation" by Brian Darling argues that it is in the political interest of the Trump administration to squash the upcoming EB5 regulation. Please find a political analysis below.

Political Arguments Against the New EB5 Reg

Political Calculations Supporting the New EB5 Reg

This regulation kills jobs in New York, LA, Miami and other major urban centers

Those in the administration pushing the regulation know that the regulation changes the location of the jobs from affluent urban areas to rural areas. President Trump cannot hope to win New York or California—he is trying to appeal to Wisconsin and Iowa by moving jobs there.

The administration should be worried about angry voters who are upset about the President not keeping his promise to create American jobs

The angry voters that affect the President's reelection effort are rural voters in Wisconsin and Iowa who are suffering due to the trade wars. The administration sees using this EB5 regulation to move jobs to rural states as a way of keeping Mr. Trump's promise to create American jobs--for rural voters who will make or break his re-election efforts.

Additional investment of $1 Billion is a value to New York, Los Angeles and Miami

$1 Billion of investment has a massive impact on the economies of rural areas that Trump needs to win for his re-election.

This is an Obama era regulation; ergo, it must be stopped

The administration stopped all Obama era regulations except this one. This regulation was pushed forward deliberately because it will help re-elect President Trump.

EB-5 is a merit based immigration system

EB-5 continues to remain a merit based immigration system under the regulation

In summary, it is clear that:
  • The new EB5 rule is very much alive
  • A battle is under way within the White House on publication of this rule
  • Calculations of both sides are political--not policy
Let us know your thoughts by writing to us at editor@ilw.com.

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Focus: India New Reg Event Schedule

ILW will be conducting events non-stop between the publication of the new EB5 regulation and the end of the grace period.

About ILW India Expos

  • India is the #1 EB5 Country, larger than the rest of the world combined, including China
  • India is currently the world's fastest growing major economy, it is growing faster than China, the number of new millionaires created each year in India is more than China
  • We will quickly put you in front of investors and agents to present your project to. Our expos will flood you with many prospects in a short time

Format:

Expo featuring seminar and exhibition
Mini meetings with investors and agents

Please bring brochures, PowerPoint presentation, table displays and business cards

Here is the planned schedule for events in India:

EB5 Events in India

Day 0: Regulation is in Federal Register Reading Room

Day 1-7: Assembling the Audiences

Day 8-14: H1B & India Events

Southern India : Chennai(2 events), Bangalore(2 events), Hyderabad(2 events)

Day 15-21: H1B & India Events

Northern India : Delhi(2 events), Chandigarh(2 events), Ludhiana(2 events)

Day 22-28: H1B & India Events

Western India : Mumbai(2 events), Ahmedabad(2 events), Baroda(2 events)

Day 29-30: No Events

Note: The specific dates for the events will be determined as soon as the regulation is published.

To help our clients make the most of this opportunity, we are surging to our full capacity. We expect to be fully sold out, we trust you will engage us promptly.

For more information and details, please call 212-545-0818 or email webmaster@ilw.com or click here

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