Comment: Deception by DOS

We have argued previously that DOS projections are based on bad data and bad methods. See here and here . The most dramatic example of the consequences of serious limitations of DOS projection data/methodology is Visagate in 2007, which affected hundreds of thousands of immigrants.

The EB5 Industry will soon make a case to Congress for additional numbers for EB-5 visas. To do so, the industry will likely use recent DOS projections. These projections may be read into the Congressional Record, and Congress may ask DOS officials to testify on the numbers under penalty of perjury. Numbers from DOS affect the lives of hundreds of thousands of individuals--it is only fair that those making the projections be ready to stand behind them under penalty of perjury, and fully defend their methodology to Congress.

DOS's current disclaimers are woefully inadequate, because they do not identify the limits of USCIS data, and attempt to paper over the problems with the data by using terms such as "DOS estimates". Any estimate is only as good as the data it is based on, and not identifying the unreliability of the data one is basing one's estimates on is disingenuous. An example of the methodological problem with DOS projections is that DOS assumes that the demand from the rest of the world remains constant. If demand in second tier EB5 countries like Brazil, Korea and Taiwan were to double in the next two years, the waiting time for Chinese investors would skyrocket from 16.5 years to perhaps 25 years. As demand from rest of the world is a material factor shaping waiting times, simply a disclaimer stating that it is not accounted for in order to simplify DOS's calculations gives DOS's projections a deceptive sense of accuracy. Doing projections under such circumstances requires complex mathematical tools like Monte Carlo simulations, application of Game theory, and the results would be in form of alternate scenarios rather than a single number. DOS has no business suggesting pin-point accuracy and then hiding behind disclaimers, which disclaimers are deceptive, since pin-point accuracy is not methodologically possible.

The entire US immigration system is grinding to a halt as is evidenced by estimated wait times of perhaps 125 years for FB4 for Philippines, perhaps 150 years for EB2 in India and perhaps 25 years for EB5 in China. There is nothing special about EB5 in China grinding to a halt. Let us not compound the already existing problem of long waiting times by adding a layer of deceptive official projections by DOS.

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Focus: H1B to EB5
Exhibition/speaking opportunities for our next round of H-1B events are available. Please see below for our current H1B to EB5 Expo schedule:

  • San Jose, CA - Monday, July 1 ( 2 Seats Available )
  • Atlanta, GA - Wednesday, July 3 ( 4 Seats Available )
  • NYC/Edison, NJ - Friday, July 5 ( 4 Seats Available )

Format:
Half Day Event for Indian H-1Bs considering EB-5 Option (Speaking Opportunity included) Please bring brochures, PowerPoint presentation, table displays and business cards.
Special Note for Attorneys: This event will feature two immigration attorney panels solely on immigration law matters. The only way an immigration attorney can participate and speak at this event is if they are nominated by an issuer who is exhibiting at the event (there is no fee charged to immigration attorneys).

EB-5 Issuers only - $3,999 per city for H-1B Event
(Inquire about Discounts and also about Platinum Level)

For more info please call (212)545-0818 or email webmaster@ilw.com or click here.

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Letters of the Week: Glenn

ComingsNGoings: Immigration Reading
Immigration and Refugee Policy: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice By Information Resources Management Association. IGI Global; 1 edition (June 7, 2019), 469 pp., Hardcover, ISBN: 1522589090, $330.00 https://www.amazon.com/Immigration-Refugee-Policy-Breakthroughs-Research/dp/1522589090


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